All posts by Frugal Ron

Frugal Ron is passionate about numbers. If something can't be quantified, how can it be discussed? He loves questioning those things that others hold sacred.

Why Democrat’s Economies Flourish and Republican Economies Fail

When Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, Frugal Ron predicted Trump would lead us into a recession. Frugal Ron also predicted Trump would dramatically increase the unemployment rate, stymie job growth, rack up record percent annual spending increases, create record government spending deficits and increase our trade deficit.  As it turned out, Trump didn’t disappoint.

So, is Frugal Ron some kind of genius? Not hardly.

Frugal Ron studies history, something Republicans don’t do. He also learned history repeats itself for people who fail to study history and learn from it.

It was easy to predict Trump would follow Republican dogma in his fiscal management. The results were equally predictable.  We’ve seen it over and over with Republicans.

Before understanding why Republican economies fail, it is important to understand their record over time using various measures. Note: While Congress theoretically controls government spending and taxation, in the real world, the president sends a proposed budget to Congress. Members of Congress typically declare the budget “dead on arrival”. However, because the president has final veto power and there is only one president and 435 House members and 100 senators, the final budget the president gets is usually very close to what he proposed.

Recessions

No one is as predictable at creating recessions as Republican presidents. In the last 100 years, 13 of the last 17 recessions have taken place when a Republican occupied the White House. It gets even more worse when looking at the data since 1953. In that period, 10 of the 11 recessions occurred while a Republican was president. I’m not doing a statistical analysis, but we can assume there is more than random chance at work here.

https://upnorthnewswi.com/2022/11/07/which-party-is-better-at-handling-the-economy-democrats-and-its-not-even-close/

The lesson here is if you are a business owner, especially one with limited cash reserves, DO NOT start a new business or a major expansion if a Republican is president or about to take office!

Job growth

Measuring job growth accurately and comparing it across presidential administrations over an 85-year period requires some effort. Looking at just the number of new jobs created does not tell us much because there were a lot fewer workers in the 1940’s. Adding an average 97,000 new workers a month like Truman did was a Herculean feat as World War II was ending. Those numbers now would be considered a failure.

Also, presidents have different term lengths. In the graph below, I used Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data and calculated the change in job numbers from the start to the end of each administration. Then I calculated the percent change in jobs from the start to the end of each term. Last step, I divide the percent change in jobs by the term length of each president in years. The final numbers you see in the graph are the annual percent change in jobs during each president’s term. One last detail, BLS started collecting this data in January, 1939. This means only the last five years of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s term are included.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

As far as performance by political party, of the eight presidents with the highest job growth, seven are Democrats. Of the seven presidents with the lowest job growth, only one is a Democrat. Again, pretty hard to argue this is due to chance.

No matter what metric one uses to measure job growth, one fact is undeniable. Donald Trump is the only president since these records were kept in 1939 with negative job growth in his term.

Republicans are in a league of their own based on their audacity in  spinning the truth. Even though COVID claimed over 1.1 million US lives, Republicans continually call COVID a hoax. Yet, when confronted with Trump’s disastrous economic record, suddenly, COVID was a once in a century pandemic. The reality is, COVID was a once in a century pandemic, made much worse in the US because of Donald Trump’s mismanagement. That mismanagement is reflected throughout measuring Trump’s economic performance.

When we cherry pick Trump’s data in his favor by knocking 2020 (the pandemic year) out of the dataset, things go from disastrous to mediocre. During Trump’s first 36 months in office, the US economy gained 6.6 million jobs. But during a comparable 36-month period at the end of Obama’s tenure, employers added 8.1 million jobs, or 23% more than were added in Trump’s first three years in office. And, if you look at the chart above, Obama isn’t the president you want to lose out comparing to.  A better comparison, in Joe Biden’s first 36 months in office, 14.7 million new jobs were created.

Republicans claim their tax cuts create jobs, The above graph disproves that fantasy. Trump’s corporate tax cuts are an excellent example. Corporations took the money they saved  on taxes and did stock buy-backs, paid down debt and padded their bottom lines. As the above paragraph showed, job growth in Trump’s cherry picked first three years was mediocre.

Ronald Reagan’s presidency is interesting. In this and other economic performance graphs and tables below, Reagan is the only Republican matching up with top tier Democrats. While he had two recessions while in office, his end of term performance was very good.

There are a few possible explanations for Reagan’s success:

  • Reagan may be an outlier.
  • Some unexplained factor or chance made him successful even though he followed Republican dogma.
  • Reagan’s extreme liberal borrow and spend policies kept the economy afloat until George  H.W Bush took office and the typical Republican recession took hold.

Looking at the graph again, certainly, there are other factors at work. From 1939 until Roosevelt died in 1945, the US put record numbers of people to work building an industrial behemoth to win World War II.  On the other end of the spectrum, the Bush II recession destroyed $9.8 trillion in wealth as home values plummeted and retirement accounts vaporized just as Obama was taking office. U.S. home mortgage debt relative to GDP increased from an average of 46% during the 1990s to 73% during 2008,  While Obama’s  numbers in this and other charts don’t look great, after assuming office in 2009, he accomplished yeoman’s work in keeping the economy from going even further into free-fall. At the end, he  actually created substantial numbers of jobs.

Economic growth

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States (without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them). Changes in GDP are how economic growth is measured.

Source; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Table 1.1.3. Real Gross Domestic Product, Quantity Indexes; Line 1 Gross Domestic Product. https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey&_gl=1*xk9abg*_ga*MjgyNDg2Njk3LjE3MDY5ODgxNDk.*_ga_J4698JNNFT*MTcwNzAwNzgzOS4yLjEuMTcwNzAwNzg2MS4zOC4wLjA.#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiLCJTdXJ2ZXkiXSxbIk5JUEFfVGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjMiXSxbIkZpcnN0X1llYXIiLCIxOTI5Il0sWyJMYXN0X1llYXIiLCIyMDIzIl0sWyJTY2FsZSIsIjAiXSxbIlNlcmllcyIsIkEiXV19

This graph looks like the Job Growth graphic above.  Of the seven presidents with the highest economic growth rates, six are Democrats. Of the nine presidents with the worst growth records, seven are Republicans. Herbert Hoover’s Percent Annual GDP change was -253.9%. Including his numbers made the graph unreadable, so I left them off, but include him in the above analysis.  The first full year of GDP data collection was 1929. That was the first full year of Hoover’s presidency.

Put in more understandable terms, a study by two economics professors at Princeton, Alan Blinder and Mark Watson found, “Since 1933, the economy has grown at an annual average rate of 4.6 percent under Democratic presidents and 2.4 percent under Republican. In more concrete terms: The average income of Americans would be more than double its current level if the economy had somehow grown at the Democratic rate for all of the past nine decades.” Their study was done before Biden had an economic record and also does not include Hoover’s data . https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opinion/sunday/democrats-economy.html 

Spending

The important column to pay attention to in this table is the “Percent Annual Change”. The rest are just support information.  Democrats Clinton and Obama grew government spending at about 1/3 the level of the Republicans. Biden has decreased annual government spending substantially since taking office.

For this table, and the ones following, I’m focusing on the more recent past. I’m starting with Ronald Reagan because he took spending and deficits to a whole new level never seen in peacetime. This from a guy that complained, “Government isn’t the answer, it is the problem”. I guess Reagan’s solution was to make the problem much bigger.

Again, I cherry picked Trump’s data to remove the impact of his mismanagement of COVID. Between Trump’s first and second and second and third years in office, Trump doubled the percent increase in government spending that Democrats Clinton and Obama maintained. In Trump’s last year, he exploded the percent increase in spending to a level not seen since World War II.

This table drives a stake in the heart of the fantasy that Republicans are fiscal conservatives. Republicans love big government. Republicans spend and spend and then spend some more.

Deficits

Let’s do some basic math. If government increases spending dramatically and at the same time cuts revenue by giving big tax cuts to rich people, what is going to happen to net income? Republicans just can’t figure this one out and they keep getting the same results, bigger and bigger deficits. Trump is even campaigning on more tax cuts. He should break his all-time record deficit if elected to a second term.

The important columns to pay attention to are “Annual Change ($billions)” and “Percent Change”. You will notice every Democrat has decreased the deficit during their term in office. Every Republican has increased the deficit.  Percent changes are equally telling. The crazy number Bush II has is due to the math of doing a percentage change and going from a positive balance to a deeply negative one.

For every president, as far as spending and deficits, their first year in office is basically a reflection on their predecessor. Most spending and revenue was set in the previous budget before they took office.  Obama left Trump with a first year spending balance of -$574 billion. By the next year, Trump increased the deficit to -$987 billion, In Trump’s next year in office, he increased the deficit to -$1.15 trillion. Both the -$987 and the -$1.15 trillion were the largest non-recession deficits in US history. In Trump’s last year in office, the deficit exploded to -$3.2 trillion, an all time record. Trump’s mismanagement of COVID was the primary reason massive deficits were needed to rescue the economy in his last year in office.

Trump increased the federal spending deficit every year he was in office and concluded with an all-time record deficit. Anyone who thinks Trump will cut our government deficit if re-elected needs a dose of reality.

Reagan’s $210 billion deficit in 2008 seems paltry by today’s standards. It was 17.2 percent of total federal government spending and 3.8 percent of GDP. Biden’s most recent annual deficit of $1.194 trillion is 19.2 percent of spending and 4.6 percent of GDP. Both deficits are far bigger than they should be. But, not a lot different  compared to overall federal government spending and GDP.

The data clearly shows, tax cuts to rich people do not pay for themselves. When a Republican says they are going to cut taxes, what they really mean is they are going to create deficits. The tables above on Job Creation and the table below illustrate that tax cuts certainly do not help the economy. Tax cuts for rich people make rich people richer and create deficits for our grandchildren to pay off. Conversely, Democrat’s tax increases do lower deficits.

One last point, you can take the BEA data and compare spending and deficits from the end of the previous president’s term to the end of each term, you can compare each as a percent of GDP, use inflation adjusted inflation values or do the comparisons in the above two tables anyway you want. What you’ll find, you’ll get different numbers. But, the answer is the same. Since Ronald Reagan was elected, Republicans are deficit loving spendaholics compared to Democrats. In other words, Republicans are liberals.

Unemployment rates

There is an old saying, “you get what you pay for.”

This doesn’t apply when you are talking about Republicans. The spending table showed Republicans spend government money like drunken sailors on a port call. Yet, Republican spending, insofar as lowering unemployment, speeding up economic growth, creating jobs and preventing recessions is ineffective.

As far as unemployment, the Reagan presidency’s unemployment decrease stands out in contrast to other Republicans, again. In all other administrations, unemployment falls during Democrats’ presidencies and shoot way up when Republicans are in the White House.

Republicans claim cutting government regulations helps employment. Obviously, like cutting taxes for rich people, the data doesn’t back up their claims.

Doing some more data cherry picking, Trump supporters claim Trump had low unemployment before COVID. The reality is Trump’s mediocre pre-pandemic job gains (covered above in the section on “Job Growth”) merely continued the low unemployment rate trend Obama left Trump with.

Trade deficits

Donald Trump promised he would end our international trade deficit and bring American jobs back home. He also claimed he was the only one who could do it. Trump failed miserably.

Trump wanted a trade war and he got it. He implemented 30 percent tariffs on many imported goods. In turn,  other countries put reciprocating tariffs on our exports. Trump also got his way by negotiating new trade agreements with many trading partners including renegotiating NAFTA. These resulted in gut-wrenching, record bankruptcies in agriculture and for companies and industries reliant on exports. It also resulted in higher costs to consumers in all countries.

The results – in Trump’s first  year in office, (2017), our trade deficit was -$378 billion. In the following years, the trade deficit increased to -$441 billion to -$448 billion and to -$570 billion in 2020. Like everything else he touched, Trump’s trade war only made things worse . We got bigger trade deficits every year. And, as the tables above show, he certainly didn’t help employment.

The reason Trump failed so spectacularly is that a country’s trade balance has nothing to do with fairness of trade, trade agreements or tariffs. It has everything to do with net national savings.

Economists use this equation to explain trade balances between countries: Private savings – Government savings = Exports – Imports

Government can’t do much about private savings, but can control  government savings. If a president wants to lower the trade deficit, lower the government spending deficit. Trying to restrict trade more, as Trump proposes if he gets a second term, will only cost more jobs and create more chaos.

Just to clarify, when trade protections are put on manufacturing jobs or a commodity like steel, it will not affect our trade balance. What these protections do is adversely affect other industries that aren’t protected. Regardless, if it is Trump or Biden, when a liberal government inserts itself into the marketplace and uses trade protections and tariffs to pick winners and losers, bad things  happen to the overall economy. Besides unprotected industries, the big losers are consumers that will pay higher prices.

Income inequality

According to a Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis study, “Income inequality in the U.S. has been rising. Since 1980, real income of the bottom 50 percent of the population has grown about 20 percent. Meanwhile, the top 10 percent have enjoyed 145 percent growth. In addition to ethical concerns over fairness, inequality has practical economic, political, and social consequences. Some research suggests that higher levels of income inequality reduces a country’s aggregate economic growth because it decreases household spending and limits educational opportunities for the children of the less well-off. The unequal distribution of income constrains how much the pie grows for everyone.” https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/the-state-of-income-inequality#:~:text=Indeed%2C%20income%20inequality%20in%20the,but%20the%20approach%20has%20limits.

The year 1980 is important. In 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan was elected president. During his term, he lowered the top tax rate from 70 percent to 37 percent. It has stayed in the mid 30 percent range since then. Not coincidentally, income inequality flourished, thanks to Reagan and every Republican president following him..

“It’s vastly oversold that tax cuts will generate job and economic growth,” said William Gale, co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. “When you cut taxes for the upper income, you give them more after-tax income, but you don’t do anything for growth.”

The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service reached  the same conclusion in 2012 . Tax cuts don’t spur growth but do increase income inequality. I will add, tax cuts also increase deficits.

Some claim Trumpian Republicans are populists. Not so. Populists typically are the Robin Hoods of politics. They reappropriate wealth, taking from the rich and giving to the poor. Core Republicans are low income, white people without college degrees. Their idea of reappropriating wealth is to make sure rich people get to keep their wealth, often at core Republicans’ expense.

This makes no sense. But, it is the world we live in today.

Stock markets

CNN reported in September 2020 that: “Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% during years when Democrats controlled the White House, according to CFRA Research. That’s well ahead of the 6.9% average gain under Republicans.”

Looking at the more recent past, the trend continues.

The data in the table makes Donald Trump look favorable. However, between the 2020 election and when Trump left office, the S&P 500 rallied seven percent in less than a three month period. This indicates markets were happyto see Trump go.

Biden’s economic performance is not fully reflected in the 10 percent annual S&P 500 gain he achieved.  Part of this is due to the conventional wisdom, that proved wrong, that the US was headed into a recession. Markets are also reacting to the almost every month threat of the Republican House of Representatives shutting the government down. At the same time, investors had perfectly safe, high interest CD’s competing with the stock market. Despite all this, with Biden as president,  the S&P 500 is at all time highs.

Inflation

Average annual inflation rates for 2021, 2022 and 2023 were 4.7 percent, 8.0 percent and 4.1 percent respectively. The current inflation rate is 3.4 percent and continually falling.

A primary driver of recent inflation is rising wages. According to a Center for American Progress (CAP) study, “Real average wage growth for a typical worker during this recovery has been the second highest of all recoveries from post-1980 recessions, and only the COVID-19 recovery (the Biden recovery) has combined robust wage growth with a near-complete recovery of the unemployment rate. The data also suggest that most individual workers are earning more today than they were before the pandemic; every prime-age worker cohort has higher inflation-adjusted median wages than before the pandemic.” https://www.americanprogress.org/article/workers-paychecks-are-growing-more-quickly-than-prices/#:~:text=The%20data%20also%20suggest%20that,wages%20than%20before%20the%20pandemic.

What is going on here?

A lot of things happened over the last 90 years impacting our economy. I’m acknowledging some of them that haven’t been listed previously below. To many people, these are major determinants. In my view, these are short term factors and aren’t the big reasons for the difference in economic performance between Republican and Democratic presidents. We’ll get to those in a bit.

  • In 1933, the unemployment rate was 25 percent. Wages fell 43 percent from 1929 to 1933.
  • After World War II, millions of veterans were incorporated into an economy shifting from military production to civilian goods.
  • John Kennedy cut the highest tax rate for those making over $250,000 annually from 90 to 70 percent. Through his appointees, he revamped the Federal Reserve to be more expansionary.
  • Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon both benefited from a war economy (Vietnam). However, decisions to fund the war without tax increases may have led to higher inflation. Nixon also sold US grain reserves to Russia. These reserves depressed commodity prices for years.
  • Jimmy Carter dealt with a number of issues, some of his making. Society was changing with changing traditions. Consequently, millions of women entered the workforce. There were oil price shocks and inflation increased. Carter appointed a hard nosed Federal Reserve chairman, (Paul Volker)  who vowed to tame inflation. Frugal Ron was farming and saw his loan interest rates increase from 7 to 21 percent between 1979 and 1980. (Interest was his biggest expense before the increase.) At the same time, corn prices dropped from $3 to $2/bushel. Not relevant to this article, but these changes inspired a lifelong learning experience in economics for Frugal Ron to understand what caused these things to happen.
  • Ronald Reagan became president after beating Carter in 1980.  Reagan cut the top tax rate from 70 to 37 percent during his tenure. Cutting tax rates and dramatically increasing government spending was an expansionary fiscal policy while Volker was still using deflationary monetary policy at the Federal Reserve.  On Nov. 6, 1986 Ronald Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. This allowed allowed around 3 million immigrants to secure legal status after paying $185, demonstrating “good moral character” and learning to speak English. Between 1980 and 1990, the foreign born population in the US increased from 14.1 million to 19.8 million. This massive influx of immigrants may be the reason Reagan’s presidency was immune to the miserable job growth, low GDP growth and high unemployment that plagued all other Republican presidents after him.
  • In the face of rapidly increasing deficits during the recession in the last year of George H.W. Bush’s presidency, he increased tax rates slightly.
  • Responding to growing pressure about the deficit, Bill Clinton increased taxes substantially after taking office in 1993. He left office having wiped out the deficit and left government with a surplus.
  • George W. Bush decreased tax rates for wealthy people. He created a large deficit and consequently a record high trade deficit.
  • Barack Obama cut taxes for middle class families and small businesses and raised them for high earners. He also passed the Affordable Care Act. This provided health insurance to over 20 million uninsured people. Enrollment in 2023 reached over 40 million.
  • Donald Trump passed a corporate tax cut with a flat 21 percent tax rate

Why the difference in economic results?

Republican dogma dictates each new Republican president will cut taxes for rich people, dramatically increase government spending for the same people and cut regulations. The data in this article shows these policies do not lead to growing economies or employment gains on the level Democrats continually attain. They do lead to ever increasing record deficits.

Insanity is defined as repeating the same mistakes over and over and expecting a different result. So, are Republicans insane when they keep doing the same things over and over, or is something else happening?

Republicans aren’t having a 40 year mental breakdown. For Republicans, broad based economic growth with high employment and low deficits are not a priority. This is important.

What Republicans are doing is perfectly logical if you understand their goals and values.

Based on current Republican priorities in the House of Representatives and Republican legislation over the last 40 years, here is how one would rate Republican priorities:

  1. Keep the US white.
  2. Make life as miserable as possible for Black people by maintaining systemic racism, eliminating education funding and safety net programs.
  3. Concentrate as much wealth as possible in as few hands as possible.
  4. Keep growing farmer welfare payments so no US corn, soybean, wheat, rice, cotton, dairy or sugar farmer ever competes in a capitalistic market.

Republicans claim their tax cuts and all the rest are the means to an end result of a strong economy, They are lying. The tax cuts, decreased government regulations, huge spending increases to preferred groups and larger farmer welfare payments are actually the ends they want to achieve.

Republicans simply don’t care if the economy goes into another recession and they run up more deficits. What is important is making rich people richer and protecting preferred farmers. (Most of the food we eat somehow miraculously makes it from the farm to the grocery store with only government food safety involvement.)

Conversely, Democrats do a great job of identifying their goal. It is simple, “use the power of government to improve peoples’ lives.” Looking at the above economic data, they are successfully achieving their goal.

How to grow an economy

Much of this article focused on how not to grow an economy. So, what does work? Following are some text book answers:

  • Increase the population. Increasing the population is pretty straightforward. You can either have a birth rate that results in a growing population or you can import people.
  • Have abundant mineral, oil, soil and temperate weather resources. Using common sense to maximize these is important. For example, don’t use finite ground water supplies to grow corn that will be burned up as ethanol.
  • Improving infrastructure is imperative for increasing a country’s wealth. Moving goods and services quickly and efficiently is essential.
  • Investing in human capital is the most important way to increase a nation’s wealth. There are various ways to accomplish this.
    • Improving people’s physical and mental health outcomes.
    • Developing an educated workforce is essential.
    • While improving all of these is important, the biggest bang for the buck is focusing resources at the most “at risk” populations.
A step further…

So how does improving people’s lives increase broad based wealth? Let’s look again at what doesn’t work.

Republicans continually tell us if rich people are given tax cuts, out of their magnanimity, the rich will start their factories and provide jobs for the little people.

This isn’t how it works. New jobs are created when there is increased demand. Tax rates have little or nothing to do with it.

Demand is created when the customer base of people that can afford to buy  increases and/or existing customers have more money to spend.

Tying this together, Democrats increase demand for products and services (economic and job growth) by improving the lives of people. If people are better educated, they can earn more money (and pay more taxes). Democrats want to create excellence in education as a key to increasing opportunity for kids of all colors and backgrounds. Republicans look at public education as an area to cut costs and thereby reduce taxes for rich people, who can then afford to send their kids to private schools.

Republicans want to reserve the pool of future high paying jobs for wealthy kids from private schools. A well funded, vibrant, quality  public school system expands the number of future well paying jobs and opens that market for kids of all colors and backgrounds. No wonder Republicans fight paying public school teachers for the value they create.

Obviously, Social Security increases the buying power of recipients. Likewise, Medicare, Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act provide health care for people who couldn’t afford it. Healthier people are more productive and can earn more money.

Effective health insurance enables people who have been hospitalized to continue spending on thisngs that grow the economy instead of spending the rest of their lives paying hospital bills. Medicaid also covers costs for the care of elderly. This allows adult children to keep working and generate more economic growth.

Low income women can get subsidized child care that allows them to continue working and generate more income. Food stamps (SNAP) allow low income people to avoid hunger and makes them more valuable to employers.

Democrats do all they can to make birth control and safe and accessible abortion available. By improving lives with these policies, a 15 year old girl doesn’t have to drop out of high school. She can instead go to college, if she chooses, and make a much higher salary. This leads to higher GDP and employment. This is so much different than when I was growing up.

Subsidized school meals and Head Start programs have a proven record of improving student outcomes. They also improve lives. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8000006/

Biden reduced or eliminated school debt for millions of overburdened people. Instead of having to deal with that debt, these former students can buy houses, cars, start families or all kinds of things that generate more jobs and higher economic output. Doing these things that improve people’s lives are like a “thousand points of light” insofar as stimulating economic growth.

From Social Security to student loan forgiveness are Democratic programs. Everyone of them was fought tooth-and-nail by Republicans. Even Social Security isn’t immune from continuing Republican threats. In her presidential campaign, Nicki Haley called for Social Security benefit cuts. Cutting back Social Security has  been a crusade of the Koch family, who endorsed Haley.

How including Black people in the economy enhanced incomes

The above graph encapsulates one of my main points. The former Confederate states were stuck in an economic crater ever since the Civil War. White racists did everything they could to deprive Black people of opportunity.  Civil rights laws were passed in the early 1950’s and white people were forced, over time to to give Black people something close to equal rights. As the graph shows, everybody was better off. When Democrats use the power of government to improve people’s lives, the economy improves.

Republicans are stuck with their fixed pie vision of the economy where the more people that come to the table, the less pie there is for everyone. This just plain doesn’t work. https://www.frugalron.com/illegal-immigration-the-crisis-that-isnt/

Earlier, the Reagan presidency was identified as an outlier in the dismal list of Republican economic ineptitude. As a point of emphasis worth repeating, it may be the key to Reagan having a more resilient economy that made it through two recessions was his acceptance of millions of migrants. While he was president, three million became full citizens. This presumably had the same effect as including Black people in the South’s economy.

Republicans fight opportunities for people of color with a passion.  In Wisconsin, employers are so hard up for college graduates, Republican business groups proposed the University of Wisconsin give lower tuition to Illinois residents if they sign a pledge to stay in Wisconsin for a set number of years after graduating. Yet at the same time, undocumented Wisconsin high school graduates, who already have homes in Wisconsin and don’t have to sign a contract to stay, have to pay out of state tuition to go to a Wisconsin college.

Frugal Ron quit counting how many times he’s heard Wisconsin Republicans saying a variation of, “I’ll be damned if I’m going to pay some Nigger’s hospital bills!”

Accordingly, the state is one of the few that refuses to pass a Medicaid expansion. The expansion is funded by the federal government. Racist Republicans are proud they  prevented working Black people in Milwaukee from getting better health care. Unfortunately, without the Medicaid expansion, rural hospitals in Wisconsin have huge problems collecting from white patients and in some cases are closing.  https://madison.com/news/local/health-med-fit/hospital-lawsuits-over-unpaid-bills-on-the-rise-in-wisconsin-study-says/article_d3c4df35-ff56-5e67-b7b7-dc76cd226da8.html

This is not the way to improve people’s lives. It is also not the way to build a strong economy.

Republicans want to  limit LGBTIQA+ opportunities, or at least keep them out of sight. These groups contribute to our country in many ways, especially economically. Successful economic growth is color blind, sexual orientation blind and gender blind.

Republicans believe if we make life miserable enough for homeless people, they will get addiction treatment, better jobs and afford an apartment. This doesn’t seem to be working real well.

Every homeless person is an economic opportunity. Houston, Texas reduced homelessness by 61 percent since 2011 by reaching out and proactively helping homeless people get housing and addressing addiction and mental health needs. Many have gotten jobs and are contributing to the economy. Of course, helping these people takes money and commitment to help people improve their lives. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/headway/houston-homeless-people.html

Last point, as far as improving a nation’s economic performance,  don’t ignore infrastructure. Workers are more efficient if they have high speed internet, safe roads, reliable power and all the things that are considered infrastructure. Infrastructure was a Republican priority when Dwight Eisenhower was president, now it is Democrats who walk the walk.

Wrapping-up…

For years on this website, Frugal Ron has correlated Republican out of control spending and huge deficits with their disastrous economic record. However, correlation does not always equal causation. It was time to take another look and see if Frugal Ron’s conservatism is biasing this analysis.  It appears there are other explanations besides Republicans’ liberal fiscal policies causing their dismal economic record.

Republican economic policies designed to satisfy the greed of rich people result in recessions and slow growth. In the end, they don’t benefit anyone.

The vision of cold, hard economics is a misnomer. Growing economies are fueled by politicians wanting to help all people improve their lives. This results in more qualified and healthier workers  filling better jobs and spending more money and creating more jobs. Basically, this requires a government of moral people doing onto others as we would have them do onto us.

In summary, voters wanting a job creating, growing economy will get better odds gambling in LasVegas than voting for Republicans. Likewise, anyone believing Donald Trump can improve the powerhouse economy Joe Biden created is delusional.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Illegal Immigration – The Crisis That Isn’t

In their latest act of silliness, the angry, white mob posing as congressional Republicans are attempting to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Republicans claim Mayorkas is not enforcing US laws and therefore failed to fulfill his oath of office. Typically, when there are record numbers of arrests, one would assume laws are being enforced. But, today’s Republicans won’t let facts spoil a good conspiracy.

According to US Customs and Border Protection data, total enforcement actions by fiscal year are listed below. Fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30 of the next calendar year. Note: Donald Trump was inaugurated in January 2017 and Joe Biden was inaugurated in January 2021. Mayorkas has been Biden’s Homeland Security secretary since his inauguration.

Fiscal Year                               Total Enforcement Actions

2016                                                    690,637

2017                                                    526,901

2018                                                    683,178

2019                                                    1,148,024

2020*                                                  646,822

2021                                                    1,956,519

2022                                                    2,766,582

2023                                                    3,201,144

*Covid impacted the number of people attempting to cross the border.

Source: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics

Clearly, anyone suggesting that Secretary Mayorkas and his Homeland Security employees aren’t enforcing the law is living in Republican Fantasyland. So, what is the real problem?

Rio Grande River at Del Rio, Texas. Mexico on far side, Mexican kids swimming. River is ineffective at preventing migration.
The law

Republicans claim the Biden administration is doing “catch and release” with illegal immigrants by letting them apply for asylum. In reality, Democrats are obeying the law.

Anyone that is physically present in the US and is not a US citizen can apply for asylum. Migrants can cut a hole through Trump’s wall or swim across the Rio Grande River. Once they set foot in the US, they find a Border Patrol agent, turn themselves in and apply for asylum. Border Patrol agents photograph and fingerprint the migrants. They also run criminal background checks on them. After that, the law says asylum seekers can remain in the US and they are released. They are given a court date when they can make their case for permanent asylum.  If granted, they can eventually apply for US citizenship.

There is currently a 3-million-person (800 days) backlog for asylum hearings. While waiting for an asylum hearing, a person must wait at least 180 days before getting a legal work permit. Typically, illegal immigrants, whether applying for asylum or not, get a fake Social Security card so they can start working immediately.

Most asylum seekers lose their cases, but they are rarely deported because of staffing shortages and policies that discourage the deportation of migrants with deep roots in the United States. The “deep roots” mean that during the two plus years they waited for their asylum hearing, they got steady employment, become part of their community, married, have kids in school and so on. They may already have family in the US when they arrived.

U.S. District Judge Jon S. Tigar struck down rules both the Trump and Biden administrations imposed to reduce the number of people applying for asylum. Presumably, he, or another federal judge, will strike down any other attempts to circumvent the law and restrict migrants’ access to asylum.

Many migrants coming illegally into the US ignore applying for asylum. They will get their fake Social Security card and blend into the US population. Republicans claim Border Patrol agents are so overwhelmed by people seeking asylum that they haven’t the resources to pursue people just entering the US illegally and staying.

Whose fault?

Clearly, Mayorkas and Department of Homeland Security employees are enforcing the law by arresting record numbers of migrants. They are also obeying the law by releasing them into the US after they apply for asylum. Federal judges are doing their jobs when ruling that federal laws must be followed.

Bush II era border fence at Del Rio, Texas. The fence is ineffective at preventing iilegal immigration.

The big picture, for Republicans, keeping America white is a sacred quest. For them, having a large influx of non-white people coming into the US is a tragedy beyond comprehension.

Mayorkas is an easy target for congressional Republicans covering up their own failings. The real problem is the US has a broken immigration system.

Republicans had a perfect opportunity to fix this and pass new immigration laws in the first two years of the Trump administration when Republicans controlled the presidency, the House and the Senate. Unfortunately for Republicans, Trump was a weak president, and they missed their chance. Right or wrong, Democrats prioritized fixing the broken economy Trump left them and restoring the health of the nation over immigration laws in the first two years of the Biden administration.

When Republicans took over the House majority in 2023, they pledged to pass a comprehensive package of new immigration laws that year. They failed.

Senate Republicans went to work to build a bipartisan consensus to pass a badly needed, improved, comprehensive set of new immigration laws. Unfortunately, Trump destroyed their work. I suspect the real reason for this is that Trump’s puppet master, Vladimir Putin, demanded Trump jettison the border deal since it included funding for Ukraine. Obviously, to Republicans, stopping the waves of new immigrants is much less important than placating their leader.

What doesn’t work. Ugly and ineffective. Migrants can use cutting torch or reciprocating saw to cut through. This is Trump era wall at DelRio, Texas.
Wire border fence, Del Rio, Texas. Road in front is for Border Patrol vehicles.
The big picture

Every time you take a bite of food, thank an illegal immigrant. If you eat away from home, thank an illegal immigrant twice. Illegal immigrants were essential in producing and processing the food. When eating out, they most likely prepared it; regardless of if you are eating at a haute taut restaurant or McDonald’s.

Likewise, when you see a completed house, apartment building or other construction project, thank illegal immigrants. The project probably wouldn’t have gotten done without them. If you check into a clean hotel room, thank an illegal immigrant. If you are Catholic and you notice extra donations helping people in need at your church, thank illegal immigrants that gave whatever they could.

People like Frugal Ron drawing Social Security payments need to thank illegal immigrants for helping keep the system solvent. Undocumented immigrants with fake Social Security cards pay into Social Security and Medicare, but are never able to get benefits. They also pay federal, state, local and sales taxes. The reality is, illegal immigrants are essential to our economy.

Illegal immigrants don’t take jobs away from white people. They take the worst jobs in the US that native born people won’t do. They may send some money home, but the majority is spent here. They buy groceries, clothes and whatever else they need. In each case they are creating jobs for the goods and services they buy.

The pie

Republican economics revolves around the fantasy that there is a finite amount of wealth in a country. This wealth is like a pie. When more people come to the table to eat the pie, that means there is less pie for everyone else.

In 1950, the US population was 148 million. In 2024, it is 348 million. If the people who espouse the fixed pie theory were right, we would have all starved to death decades ago. When the population grows, what I’ve described above happens. More workers generate more jobs as the new workers spend their money and it multiplies as it moves through the economy over and over.

Perhaps even more important, the US birthrate is declining. What this means is we have more and more people in the Boomer generation retiring and drawing Social Security and other benefits. Because of the declining birth rate (that has been going on for years), we have less working age people contributing to Social Security and Medicare. We also have a declining work force to do everything from growing food to high tech jobs. There is no better way to stagnate an economy than having a declining population. Having working age (and reproductive age) people immigrating here is like dropping manna from heaven.

The exodus

Facts are to Republicans  what wooden stakes are to vampires. The reality is “There’s a lot of people (illegal immigrants) leaving the country, and they’re leaving voluntarily,” said Mr. Robert Warren, a senior fellow at the Center for Migration Studies.

The current undocumented population has stayed relatively constant at about 10.2 million over the past several years, after peaking at nearly 12 million in 2008. This is even with the large number of new arrivals at the border.

The primary reason people are returning home is to reunite with their families. Also, the Mexican economy is improving.

Migrants used to come to the US , work for a period, return home and maybe return again. This circular migration was upended in the early 1990s as the United States introduced a spate of policies to fortify the border, erecting barriers and deploying more agents.

But the border restrictions backfired. After facing risks and paying smugglers to cross the border, undocumented workers stayed in the United States, rather than coming and going.

“Most of them never wanted to stay. We gummed up the works when we militarized the border,” said Douglas S. Massey, an immigration scholar at Princeton. “They spent longer and longer time (in the US) and had families.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/us/undocumented-immigrants-exodus-us.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RU0.QPSD.LqXkFTDY4TqV&smid=url-share

The problem

Republicans perpetuate the myth that immigrants are taking jobs away from white people. They also perpetuate the lie that illegal immigrants commit more crimes than native born people. And, there is always the claim that these brown and Black skinned immigrants are “illegal”. We should invite some Native Americans into this conversation and get their views on what an “illegal immigrant” is.

Republican policies are driven by their racism. If the illegal immigrants were blonde haired, blue eyed white people, this article wouldn’t be necessary.

Morality and immigration

“Do onto others as you would have them do onto you”, is the motto moral people live by. Separating children from their legally asylum-seeking parents, warehousing the children hundreds of miles away from their parents and deporting parents without making any effort to reunite families is something none of us would wish on ourselves. Yet, this was a centerpiece of the Trump administration’s immigration policy. Note: The Trump appointed Department of Homeland Security Inspector General found at least 348 cases where the Trump administration forced migrant parents to leave the US without their children. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/watchdog-says-u-s-forced-deported-parents-to-leave-kids-behind

Likewise, forcing people legally seeking asylum in the US to stay for months in squalid, overcrowded camps in Mexico where rapes, murders, assaults and robbery were commonplace is also immoral. Both the Trump and Biden administrations used these camps, until Judge Tigar ruled they were illegal.

From a lifetime of being raised with and living and working around Republicans, I’ve learned the great majority believe non-white people are inferior. In many cases, aren’t fully valued as human. This is the definition of racism.

It explains how people that consider themselves moral can justify treating people of color like livestock by putting them in inhumane tent camps and separating families.

It is strange that a party that espouses their devotion to Jesus Christ would ignore His frequent admonition to “be kind to strangers”. (“Strangers” in the Bible are people from other countries.) When Republicans must choose between Christianity and their racism, Jesus always loses.

Summary

Donald Trump claims, “Immigrants are destroying the blood of our country!” Personally, I think a perpetual liar with a record of whoring, payoffs to his sex partners, two divorces (so far), an illegitimate kid, a rape conviction, a fraud conviction and facing 91 felony charges is more of a threat to “destroying the blood of our country” than 10.2 million illegal immigrants.

Illegal immigrants are one of the US’s greatest strengths. They take jobs nobody else wants. They spend their pay in the US and create  jobs. They send their kids to school so they can add even more value to our future economy; just like other immigrants have done for generations. All along, they are paying federal, state, local and sales taxes, Social Security and Medicare taxes. Republicans try to take this strength, using fear and propaganda, and rebrand it as a crisis. Don’t let them get away with it.


Why Republicans Gave Up On Democracy and How to Stop Them

We watched the angry, white mob of Republicans storming the Capitol on January 6, 2021, while waving their Confederate flags and trying to restore Donald Trump as president. These were some of the last desperate gasps of white racism as a political force in the United States. The raw truth is, Republicans are losing, and they know it.

The day Republicans gave up on democracy.

Republicans were shocked in 2018 when voters repudiated Donald Trump’s presidency and gave Democrats a majority in the House of Representatives. Things got much worse in 2020 when Trump was thrown out of office and Democrats took over the Senate.

For Republicans, seeing their living god defeated was more than they could handle. Rather than blaming Trump’s presidential incompetence, they decided the vote was rigged. Trump fanned this fantasy over the last three years without having a shred of evidence.

Since then, Republicans have broken away from democracy even more. Republicans didn’t like the Wisconsin Supreme Court justice voters elected in a landslide. So, Republicans in the Assembly and Senate threaten to impeach her if she doesn’t vote the way they want her to. After Republicans got thumped again in November 2023 elections, former Republican Senator Rick Santorum echoed Republican views that, “Pure democracies aren’t how to run a country.”

Confronted with their election loss, Republicans chose violence.
What has made Republicans so crazy now?

Along with losing elections, systemic racism, the Republican party’s foundation, is collapsing right in front of them. For Republicans, in 2016, this was no time for same-old, same-old. They needed a fire-breathing, true believing, bigoted, racist for president. Who cares if he is dim-witted, has no respect for laws, has no morals and is only concerned about himself?

Desperate times call for desperate actions. Here are some of the reasons Republicans are so desperate that they nominated Trump in 2016 and are sticking with him now:

  • White Republicans watched helplessly as a Black man was elected president twice. He fixed the disastrous economy G.W. Bush left him.  Obama left a strong and growing economy and  the lowest deficit in 10 years for Trump to destroy. Obama also won   the Nobel Peace Prize.  He left office with a 59 percent approval rating, compared to the 34 percent for the white presidents that preceded and succeeded him. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/final-presidential-job-approval-ratings
  • Republicans were shattered when a white police officer was convicted of murder in the death of a Black man (George Floyd). This goes to the core of threatening the Republican perception of a thin blue line that protects white people from Black mayhem and criminality.
  • According to Republicans, liberal district attorneys and judges are preventing the police from doing their jobs (killing unarmed Black people). Currently, an Austin, Texas a police officer is accused of murdering an unarmed Black man, three policemen in Tacoma, Washington are charged with second degree murder and manslaughter in the death of a Black man. Five former police officers (all Black) in Memphis, Tennessee are charged with murdering a Black man. These are some of the ongoing cases.
  • Police forces are reckoning with their racism.  Citizens with cell phone video cameras are recording police brutality to Black people. To the horror of  Republicans, police systemic racism is being challenged.
  • A major part of the systemic racism Black people endured is getting longer prison sentences than white people with similar records, committing the same crime. This is changing.
  • Another major part of the systemic racism Black people lived with is that Black lives have always been less valuable than white lives. However, the conviction of three white men for the murder of Ahmaud Arbery in southern Georgia by a jury of 11 white people and one Black man shattered that foundational belief. All three defendants received life sentences. Arbery was a Black man jogging in a white neighborhood. Years ago, the white defendant’s  defense that they were preventing theft because the Black man obviously was casing homes for a robbery would have saved them. Not anymore. To Republican terror, Black lives do matter.
  • Another sign of the weakening of white privilege that scares Republicans witless is that federal courts are changing. So far in Joe Biden’s term, 67 percent of his confirmed judicial appointees are non-white (34 percent are Black), and 68 percent are women. Back in the good-old-days, less than 4 percent of Trump’s judicial appointees are Black. Biden’s Supreme Court appointee is a Black woman.
  • Kamala Harris is the first non-white vice president in US history and the first woman vice president in US history.
  • The real power in federal courts are the lawyers that are federal prosecutors. Forty-eight percent of Biden’s appointees to these posts are Black. Back when Trump was president, of the 93 federal prosecutors, two were Black.
  • Another core part of systemic white racism is making sure people of color are prevented from moving into white neighborhoods. Over the years, exclusionary zoning, title restrictions preventing people of “Ethiopian descent” from buying houses in some neighborhoods along with bank “red lining” have all been outlawed. Horror of horrors to Republicans, people of color are moving into white suburbs. Even more horrific to racists, white people are finding out their new neighbors are not all drug dealing, murderous rapists and are just like white people in most ways. Consequently, suburbs are becoming less racist and are voting for Democrats. This break down of white privilege and systemic racism terrifies Republicans.
  • A major part of systemic racism is keeping Black people from voting. Republicans just know that Black people are inherently lazy. Requiring a picture ID,  having fewer polling stations in Black neighborhoods and  making it illegal to offer water to voters waiting in longer lines were supposed to cut down the number of Black people voting. Add a few white cops outside of polling stations to intimidate Black people and for sure Black voters will stay home. Unfortunately, these processes made Black people angry and backfired. In 2020, Black people turned out in record numbers in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia that made voting more difficult and voted for Democrats.
  • Schools are starting to teach real history. Real history includes the truth about slavery. About how Black men listened helplessly while white slave masters raped their daughters and wives in the next room. How families were broken up when a slave owner decided to sell some family members at auction. Real history also includes post Civil War Reconstruction and how Black office holders were lynched by white Klu Klux Klansmen after federal troops were pulled out of the South in 1877. Systemic racism depersonalizes Black people. White kids understanding what Black people have gone through, especially when shown through the perspective of Black people that lived through this horror, enables white kids to understand a and relate to Black people. The worst fear of racists is that their kids don’t grow up hating Black people.
  • Other symbolic chips in systemic racism that are intolerable to Republicans are tearing down and melting monuments to treasonous Confederate Civil War generals. These Republican heroes broke their oaths to defend the US Constitution and instead defended slavery. Along the same lines, Republicans failed to keep military bases named for the same Civil War seditionists. Adding insult upon insult for racist Republicans, both the US Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff are Black.
  • For Republicans, Black football players kneeling during the national anthem to protest police brutality to Black people was an affront to all white people and a direct assault on white privilege. Systemic racism is all about Black people needing to know their place and interrupting a football game for their silly grievances was a step too far. Also, Super Bowl performances dominated by Black people and Latinos shows how far elitists have gone to destroy white culture.
  • Sticking this all in Republican faces is the “Black Lives Matter” movement. White people actually joined the BLM protestors.
  • After decades of fighting to keep white people’s taxes from supplementing under-funded Black schools , Republicans lost another major battle. In large part, thanks to the hated Education Department, “Average expenditures are very similar for the average Black and average White student, though sources of funding differ, with Black students receiving more federal funds and White students more local funds.” https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2022/02/16/school-district-expenditures-and-race
  • Republicans convinced themselves that “replacement theory” is real. Democrats are supposedly importing brown skinned people to the US that will vote for Democrats in future elections. However, the reality is, migrants are leaving the US at the same rate as those arriving.  According to Econofact, “Reductions in net immigration to the U.S. began prior to the pandemic, declining in every year since 2016, when net migration exceeded one million. Net migration is the number of people coming to the US (legally and illegally) minus the number of people leaving”. https://econofact.org/the-decline-in-u-s-net-migration
  • Perhaps the worst sign of an upside down world for Republicans is their living god, Donald Trump, is being prosecuted by a Black man in Manhattan. Worse, Black women are leading Trump prosecutions in New York and Atlanta. All these Black prosecutors are elected officials. Trump will be forced to sit in judgement in front of a Black judge in New York and answer questions put to him by Black prosecutors. Considering the trial locations, we can expect Trump’s fate will be determined by juries that include people of color.
Other areas where Republicans are losing…
  • The forced birth movement is failing. Even in Republican states, whenever voters are given a opportunity, they vote to make abortion legal. Abortion to Republican elected officials is equivalent to a sharpened wooden cross  to vampires.
  • On top of all this, schools are teaching real biology and how sexual orientation is determined. Unfortunately for Republicans, people’s sexual orientation has nothing to do with grooming or what books kids may read. And, voters are catching-on. “Youngkin’s Disastrous Night Shows the Culture War Has Fizzled”.  Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/08/glenn-youngkin-democrats-virginia-elections-culture-wars/
  • Republicans are completely incapable of grasping the reality that transgender people are real and not faking it. Again, how can the Republican Party survive if Republicans’ kids understand that being Gay, lesbian or transgender is not a choice? What happens to the Republican Party if kids grow up not hating people with a different sexual orientation?
  • Same sex marriage is supported by 71 percent of US citizens. https://news.gallup.com/poll/506636/sex-marriage-support-holds-high.aspx
  • Republicans proclaim the US is a Christian nation. It is impossible to defend this argument given the dramatic drop in the number of people in the US that consider themselves Christian and the rise in the number of people who are “religiously unaffiliated”. 
What happens next?

In the last nine presidential elections, Republicans lost the popular vote in eight of those elections. Yet, because of the Electoral College, Republicans have held the presidency for 16 years versus 18 years for Democrats in that time period. Republicans also hold a six to three majority on the Supreme Court. In the US Senate, less populated Republican states like Wyoming get the same number of senators as California. In addition, Republicans have a built in advantage in representation in Congress because of their strength in less populated rural areas. Republicans have also taken gerrymandering to the next level in states they control.

Republicans should be happy to keep the present form of democracy going. But, as illustrated above, there are problems.

Rural areas are depopulating. Formerly reliably Republican suburbs are growing by adding better educated voters of all colors and consequently becoming more Democratic. Older Republicans are dying and are being replaced by younger, better educated voters interested in fighting climate change and unregulated gun sales. Worse, some Supreme Court Republicans are ruling against extreme Republican gerrymandering.

Republicans abandoned democracy on January 6, 2021 and they affirm their abandonment by racing headlong to nominate their wannabe dictator, Donald Trump,  for president in 2024. Trump has made no secret of wanting to suspend the Constitution, executing military leaders that don’t kowtowel to him and make the Justice Department and FBI subservient to him. I don’t know anything else he can say that defines his plans to make himself a dictator.

Trump recognizes how racist the Republican Party is and is appealing to voters in the party center. He has announced his plans to Make America White Again.

According to the New York Times, “Former President Donald J. Trump is planning an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration if he returns to power in 2025 — including preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled.

He plans to scour the country for unauthorized immigrants and deport people by the millions per year. To help speed mass deportations, Mr. Trump is preparing an enormous expansion of a form of removal that does not require due process hearings.

To help Immigration and Customs Enforcement carry out sweeping raids, he plans to reassign other federal agents and deputize local police officers and National Guard soldiers voluntarily contributed by Republican-run states. To ease the strain on ICE detention facilities, Mr. Trump wants to build huge camps to detain people while their cases are processed and they await deportation flights. And to get around any refusal by Congress to appropriate the necessary funds, Mr. Trump would redirect money in the military budget, as he did in his first term to spend more on a border wall than Congress had authorized.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html

Maybe, we need to rethink this dictatorship thing?

Whitey Holm was a diminutive guy. Before World War II, he was raised on a small farm in Central Wisconsin. After the war, he took advantage of the GI Bill and became a world renowned horticulturist. He was a neighbor in Madison, Wisconsin who passed away a few years ago and was one of the most interesting people I ever met.

During the war, he was an  Army infantryman that came ashore at Normandy two weeks after the D-Day landing. He fought all the way across France, the Battle of the Bulge, liberated concentration camps and into Germany, until VE Day.

Whitey was adamant that the people that wrote the books and screenplay for Private Ryan, Band of Brothers and other supposedly realistic movies weren’t actually there. His jaw would tighten up and he would say that anyone who actually fought there could never talk about it. It was so awful, they couldn’t possibly describe what it was like.

For me, I think about the godawful sacrifice Whitey and millions of other GI’s made. I also think about the over 400,000 that made the ultimate sacrifice to protect our democracy from Hitler and Hirohito. They didn’t question the need to preserve our democracy and keep us free from racist demigods like Adolf Hitler and Japan’s Emperor Hirohito. They just did it.

Our ancestors made horrific sacrifices to establish and defend our republic. It makes me sick that Republicans would just hand our democracy to Donald Trump, today’s power hungry, wannabe, racist, dictator. Sadly, Republicans are willing to give up our democracy just to satiate their hatred of people with black, brown, yellow and red skin, Gays, lesbians, transgender people, Jews, Muslims and strong, powerful women. And, don’t believe the lies that Donald Trump will bring more effective government The first Trump presidency was an economic, health and debt disaster. https://www.frugalron.com/the-trump-disaster/

Wrapping-up

Make no mistake, if Donald Trump wins the presidency in 2024, he will setup a dictatorship and make our democracy a memory. If you don’t believe this, believe Donald Trump (for once). https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/us/politics/trump-plans-2025.html   

Not only will Trump create a dictatorship, it will be evil, based on re-establishing white supremacy and destroying the multi-cultural society we have now.

It is time to put another nail in the coffin of Republican racism. In 2024, every racist in the US will turn out and vote for Trump. For the rest of us, Joe Biden (or whoever runs for the Democrats a year from now)  certainly isn’t perfect. But staying home or wasting your vote on a third party candidacy that doesn’t stand a chance of winning will get us a Donald Trump dictatorship. Bottom line, vote for democracy and competence – vote for Democrats.

 

 

 

 


Republicans and Rape

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2024, he will be the first convicted rapist in US history to be a major party presidential candidate. While the rest of the world is focused on Trump’s various other indictments, nothing more completely illustrates the breakdown of morality and the degradation of women among today’s Republicans than his post conviction Republican presidential frontrunner status .

Republicans try to diminish the verdict

E. Jean Carroll, an advice columnist, wrote in a magazine article that Trump raped her in 1995 or 1996 in a Manhattan Bergdorf Goodman department store dressing room. She claimed Trump pushed her against the wall in the store’s dressing room, pulled down her tights and forcibly penetrated her with his fingers and then his penis. Trump claimed (while president) that he never met Carroll and couldn’t have raped her because she wasn’t his type.

In 2019, New York passed the Adult Survivor’s Act which allowed adult survivors of sexual assault to file a civil suit against predators. Carroll was one of over 3,700 women using the law to sue their attackers.

Left to right, Donald Trump, E. Jean Carroll,
In her divorce deposition, Donald Trump’s first wife Ivana, also charged Trump with rape.

Trump was required to give a sworn deposition before the trial. Shown the above photo of Trump and Carroll, Trump repeatedly argued that Carroll was actually his long-time mistress and second wife Marla Maples. The picture and Trump’s misidentification of Carroll as his former wife destroyed Trump’s defense that he never met Carroll and she wasn’t his type.

At the trial,  Carroll described the attack to the jury. Trump’s lawyer spent two days trying to pick apart her testimony about the rape. This was a classic example of rape trials where the victim winds up being put on trial.

Using a tactic in trials of other sexual predators, Carroll’s lawyers had two other women give sworn testimony about also being sexually assaulted by Trump. (There is a support group formed by two dozen women who have been sexually assaulted by Trump.)

Carroll’s lawyers also played the famous Hollywood Access tape Trump, made shortly after marrying Melania Trump. On the recording, about another woman, Trump stated, “I moved on her actually, she was down in Palm Beach and I failed. I’ll admit it. I did try to fuck her, she was married … and I moved on her very heavily,”

Trump seems to have a fetish about sexually assaulting women in stores.

“I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture and I told her ‘I’ll show you where you can get some nice furniture.’ I moved on her like a bitch, and I could not get there, and she was married. And all the sudden I see her and she’s got the big phony tits, she’s totally changed her look.”

Trump continued, “I’m automatically attracted to beautiful women — I just start kissing them, it’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy.”

The nine-person jury of Trump’s peers took less than three hours to unanimously find Trump guilty of sexual abuse, defamation and ordered that he pay her $5 million in damages.

After the verdict, Trump continued defaming Carroll, claiming the jury didn’t find him guilty of rape. US District Judge Lewis Kaplan, who presided over the trial, wrote that the trial evidence showed that Trump did rape Carroll, “in the plain sense of the word”.

Trump appealed the jury verdict and the appeal was denied. The judge validated Trump’s conviction and the $5 million in damages. In a trial scheduled to begin on January 15, 2024, the judge will decide additional damages owed Carroll by Trump. These are for multiple defamations before and after those decided in the jury trial.

Trump and Republicans want to blame all of Trump’s legal problems on the “deep state”, the weaponization of the FBI and President Joe Biden. I can guarantee, the FBI didn’t push E. Jean Carroll against a wall in a department store dressing room. And, Joe Biden didn’t guide Trump’s hand and penis into Carroll’s vagina.

Besides the two dozen women who claimed Trump sexually assaulted them, Trump’s late first wife Ivana, also charged him with marital rape along with cruel  and inhuman treatment in her divorce filing. (Ivana was the mother of three of Trump’s children.)

A pattern of Republican approval of rape

At Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court confirmation hearing, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, a research psychologist at Palo Alto University in northern California told the Senate Judiciary Committee about the terror she felt on a summer day more than 30 years ago, when a drunken young Kavanaugh pinned her to a bed, tried to rip off her clothes and clapped his hand over her mouth to muffle her cries for help.

Kavanaugh’s unhinged, rambling denials didn’t elicit a hint of credibility. All we learned from his crying was that he liked to drink beer. For any reasonably neutral person, it was easy to determine Ford was telling the truth and Kavanaugh was lying.

Republican senators, who controlled the Judiciary Committee, could have sought out the truth by subpoenaing Mark Judge to testify under oath. Judge was the third person in the room during the assault who pulled Kavanaugh off Ford. Unfortunately, Republicans were more interested in getting their prize confirmed than in the truth. Consequently, they chose not to subpoena Judge or to act on Ford’s sworn testimony.

After Kavanaugh’s disjointed testimony, Republicans confirmed his nomination. In a highly unusual procedure, he was sworn in two hours later. This prevented anyone from charging Kavanaugh with perjury due to his testimony.

Like Trump, Kavanaugh’s sexual assaults were not a one-off happening. The New York Times interviewed three other women who credibly accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault or misconduct.  https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/us/politics/brett-kavanaugh-accusers-women.html#:~:text=Three%20women%20have%20publicly%20accused,before%20the%20Senate%20Judiciary%20Committee.

In addition, the regular FBI tip line recorded over 4,500 reports of sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh. Rather than investigate them, the FBI sent the most relevant tips to White House lawyers, where the list died. This was example of the politicization of the FBI during the Trump Administration. Rather than seeking out the truth about Kavanaugh, the FBI sought to advance the president’s interest (making sure Kavanaugh became a Supreme Court justice).

What I’ve learned…

What struck me as I watched Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony on tv and read the transcripts of E. Jean Carroll’s testimony, both women remembered every detail of the attacks that happened decades earlier. These details were seared into their memories forever. Even worse, they each explained in their testimony how the attacks dramatically affected them for the rest of their lives. No one can reverse or take back the horror of their rapes.

In dramatic contrast, their rapists (Trump and Kavanaugh) simply blew off their attacks. They show absolutely no remorse for their actions. There is no concern for what they put their victims through. All they were focused on was getting their 30 seconds of sexual satisfaction.

Let’s put aside all the Republican holier than thou theatrics and Trump’s Bible waving. It is impossible to comprehend that Trump and Kavanaugh believe in an all-powerful, all-knowing and always present God. And, it is hard to believe they can ever expect God’s limitless mercy unless they admit their rapes and publicly and personally  apologize to their victims. They should also apologize to all the people they lied to about their assaults.

Impacts on society…

Our leaders’ values are reflected across society. This is fine when our leaders are George H.W. Bush, Barack Obama or Joe Biden. Unfortunately, this is not so good when young people’s role model is Donald Trump.

For most of us, the idea of Trump as a role model is ridiculous. Yet, in Republican households, Trump is a deity – a living god. In these families, Trump’s sex partners and he and Kavanaugh’s assault victims are liars, whores and worse who just made up lies to discredit their Messiahs. From my experience, Republicans are divided into two groups insofar as Trump and Kavanaugh’s rapes. One group is sure there was no rape, but if there was, it was the woman’s fault. The second group is even worse. These macho Republicans look at these rapes as just evidence that Trump and Kavanaugh know how to handle women.

Imagine being a teen-age girl raised in this environment. These girls are taught that sexual assault doesn’t really happen. If it does, it is their fault. For boys, raping a girl is simply what real men like Trump and Kavanaugh do. If they get caught, they are taught to just deny, deny, deny, no matter the evidence. To say sexual assault is marginalized in these Republican households is an understatement.

One would have to live in a vacuum to believe Trump’s 2017 inauguration and Republican marginalization of Trump’s pussy grabbing tape and rape conviction hasn’t made an impact in our society. A February 2023, CDC survey found an alarming spike in sexual violence toward teenage girls during Trump’s presidency. Nearly 1 in 5 females (18%) experienced sexual violence in the past year, a 20% increase from 2017. More than 1 in 10 teen girls (14%) said they had been forced to have sex (raped).  According to the researchers, teenage girls are experiencing record high levels of sexual violence, and nearly 3 in 5 girls report feeling persistently sad or hopeless. Nearly one-third of girls (30%) reported seriously considering suicide, up from 19% in 2011. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-sexual-attacks-teen-girls-increased-lockdown-rcna70782

Republican diversion

For decades, Republicans have used support for ending abortion as their litmus test for morality (that they claim is based on their Christian faith). Yet, the Bible in is explicit that life begins at first breath.

“Genesis 2:7 is clearest. The first human (Adam) became a ‘living being’ (nefesh hayah, ‘a living breath’) when God blew into its nostrils and he started to breathe. Before taking his first breath, he was just a shell. Human life begins when you start breathing, Biblical writers thought. It ends when you stop. That’s why the Hebrew word often translated ‘spirit’ (ruah) — ‘life force’ might be a better translation — literally means ‘wind’ or ‘breath.” 

“Exodus 21:22-25 describes a case where a pregnant woman jumps into a fight between her husband and another man and suffers injuries that cause her to miscarry. Injuries to the woman prompt the normal penalties for harming another human being: an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, a life for a life. Killing the woman is murder, a capital crime. The miscarriage is treated differently, however — as property loss, not murder. The assailant must pay a fine to the husband. The law of a life for a life does not apply. The fetus is important, but it’s not human life in the same way the pregnant woman is.”

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/abortion-what-the-bible-says-and-doesnt-say_b_1856049

The Bible leaves no ambiguity about rape. “The Bible addresses the issue of rape directly. And, as one would expect, the Bible depicts rape as a gross violation of God’s design (e.g., Genesis 34). The Bible condemns rape whenever it is mentioned.”

“As the people of Israel prepared to enter the Promised Land under Joshua’s leadership, the laws of God were repeated. One of those laws was a clear prohibition against forcing a woman into a sexual encounter against her will, or what we today call rape.“

“The law stipulated that a rapist was to be killed by stoning.” (Deuteronomy 22:25).”

https://www.gotquestions.org/Bible-rape.htm

What can be done?

As much as I despise Donald Trump and Brett Kavanaugh, and what they done to women, I’m not advocating stoning them to death. What I wish would happen, is that Republican voters/parents would accept that rape is a terrible crime. Hauling kids to church and making them sit through hours of boring sermons, Sunday school and all the rest isn’t going to make them good people. Far more important is Republican parents need to live and teach that sexual assault is wrong, it is not the victim’s fault and rape should be severely punished, no matter who commits it. A first step for Republicans is acceptance that a civil or criminal rape conviction should be absolutely and immediately disqualifying for the leader of a nation.

While I don’t expect that will happen, what is attainable is to remove the statute of limitations for sexual assault in all states. Delaware already has no statutes of limitations on any sexual assault. Eight other states have no statute of limitations on felony sexual assault and 27 states waive their statute of limitations if new DNA evidence is found.

It is understandable a teenager like Christine Blasey Ford, Kavanaugh’s accuser, would be scared to death to report Kavanaugh’s assault. Years later, after coming to grips with what the assault did to her, she should have the option of bringing Kavanaugh to justice. Likewise, while Trump bragged he could grab women’s pussies and never have to worry because he was famous, years later, his victims might not be so afraid and should have the option of prosecuting him in criminal court. The goal here should be that Trump, Kavanaugh and every other rapist should spend the rest of their lives looking over their shoulder and wondering if this is the day one of their victims is going to have them arrested for a long-ago rape.

What we can do…

Republican voters obviously don’t care if their president is a convicted rapist. That should further incentify the rest of us to vote for Democrats. Frugal Ron lives in Texas and will take the opportunity in 2024 to vote against Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who was instrumental in pushing Kavanaugh’s confirmation through the Senate Judiciary Committee. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the only Republican senator to vote against Kavanaugh’s confirmation. All other Republican senators were complicit, or worse.

There is clearly a difference in political parties about morality and sexual assault. North Carolina’s 2020 Democratic Senate candidate, Cal Cunningham, was leading comfortably in the polls. Then it came out that the married Cunningham was sending romantic texts to a female reporter. Democratic voters weren’t forgiving and Cunningham lost. Al Franken Democratic Senator from Minnesota, Democratic Representatives Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico, John Conyers of Michigan, Elizabeth Etsy of Connecticut, Ruben Kihuen of Nevada and Katie Hill from California and Governor Andrew Cuomo  of New York were all forced to resign over actions not nearly as serious as Trump’s sexual battery/rape conviction. The point is, Democrats are guilty of sexual harassment and assault. The difference between the two parties is that Democratic voters are unforgiving of sexual assault while Republicans condone it in their politicians and jurists.

The message here is simple. Vote for morality, vote for competence and vote for Democrats. Voting is the easy part. What is also important is confronting Republicans and letting them know that rape is wrong; regardless if it is committed by a black man or a white, racist, bigoted Republican former president.

 

 


The Republican Deficit Reduction Fiasco

Republicans hoped to use their slim majority in the House of Representatives and the debt ceiling to force President Joe Biden and Democrats to make major cuts in federal safety net programs. They failed.

Why Republicans choked

The whole debt ceiling charade was a Republican concocted crisis. If Republicans really wanted to cut the deficit, they had a perfect opportunity the first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency when they controlled the House and Senate. Instead, they cut taxes for rich people and raised the deficit from $571.6 billion in Trump’s first year in office (2017) to $982.1 billion in 2018. In 2019, they increased the deficit again, this time to $1.16 trillion. In 2020, after Trump’s disastrous mismanagement of the COVID pandemic devastated the economy, the deficit ballooned to an all-time-record $3.0 trillion. (Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 3.2 Federal Government Current receipts and Expenditures, Line 49, Net ending or borrowing. https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiLCJTdXJ2ZXkiXSxbIk5JUEFfVGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjg3Il0sWyJGaXJzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAxNiJdLFsiTGFzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAyMyJdLFsiU2NhbGUiLCItOSJdLFsiU2VyaWVzIiwiQSJdXX0=)

Back to the charade, if Biden wanted to play hardball with the Republicans, he could have held out until just before the US would have defaulted on our debt. He could have forced an up-or-down vote in the House to raise the debt ceiling with no spending concessions.

Republicans hold a five-seat majority in the House. Three Republicans defecting to prevent economic Armageddon would have scuttled the Republican plan. Republicans would have been left with nothing.

Republicans would probably have dumped Speaker Kevin McCarthy and shut down Congress for weeks or months trying to elect a new speaker. Biden evidently decided to go through the motions of negotiating with McCarthy, throw the Republicans a few crumbs, save them embarrassment and keep Congress functioning.

Deficit reduction or satiating Republican voter’s hatred and racism?

The Republican deficit reduction plan passed in the House never was about cutting the deficit. It only intended to slow future increases in our deficit. The Republican farce really was about satiating Republican voter hatred towards poor people (more specifically, Black people) and cutting health care, housing and food stamps for them. Republican spending cuts were focused on the poorest and most economically vulnerable people in the US.  Republicans in the House voted unanimously for this disaster.

Republican deficit reduction that wouldn’t actually reduce our present deficit Source: The New York Times

Unfortunately for deficit reduction, the safety net programs Republicans targeted aren’t big dollar items, compared to government spending as a whole. That is why Republicans talk about “ten-year savings” in their proposal. Divide their budget savings by ten and then compare them to our 2022 annual federal government spending balance of -$1.1 trillion or 2022 total spending of $6.17 trillion and you get the idea. (Source Bureau of Economic Analysis, above)

One of the Republican “non-negotiable” items was that poor people couldn’t obtain food stamps, Medicaid, housing assistance or other federal benefits unless they are working a minimum number of hours per week. I can imagine how this proposal came from Republicans that inherited farms or ranches and never had to apply for a job in their life.

The inference is clear. Black people are lazy and all that is needed to get them off government programs and move them into jobs is ending their benefits.

In the real world, there are kids and sometimes elderly parents to take care of (that fall out of the range of parents with very young children that were to be exempted from the work requirements). Republicans love to complain about Black single mothers not working while at the same time complaining about single parents who don’t supervise their kids. You can’t have it both ways.

There are a myriad of other issues like transportation, physical and mental health issues and racism that poor Black people have to deal with that White, middle class Republicans can’t begin to fathom. And, while jobs are plentiful now, what happens when a Republican becomes president and unemployment shoots up to the 10 percent range like it has with every Republican president since 1980? God forbid, some of the people not eligible for health care, food stamps and other help might be White Republicans.

In the negotiated bill Biden signed into law, Republicans did get food stamp work requirements enacted for single people without children, aged 49-57. However, food stamp eligibility was expanded to homeless people, veterans and people aging out of foster care, all without work requirements. The net is more people are eligible for government help (without work requirements) after debt ceiling negotiations than before.

The hypocrisy

Republicans hate seeing people long term, living off the government It may be commendable to reduce people’s dependence on government. However, the hypocrisy is blatant when Republicans don’t have the same enthusiasm for cutting White, farmer welfare payments  There are no people more dependent on long-term government handouts than crop and dairy farmers. https://www.frugalron.com/are-us-farmers-the-real-welfare-kings-and-queens/

Perhaps if farmers’ government benefits were cut, farmers would become more responsible and take more pride in their self-sufficiency? Personally, I don’t care how deep farmers’ stick their snouts into the trough of government subsidies. All I ask is that if farmers think they are entitled  to subsidies, they show some compassion. Especially for those far worse off that need essentials like food, medical care and housing.

Republicans claim the programs they want to cut and farmer welfare programs are completely different. Yes, they are different. As different as black and white.

More cuts

Republicans also planned to cut federal spending to underfunded schools, which are predominantly in urban and rural neighborhoods populated by black and brown skinned people. Their proposal would cut approximately $4 billion in funding for schools serving low-income children, impacting an estimated 26 million students and reducing program funding to its lowest level in almost a decade—a cut equivalent to removing more than 60,000 teachers and specialized instructional support personnel from classrooms.

For good measure, The House Republican proposal would limit educators’ abilities to address student mental health issues, prevent violence, suicide, and drug abuse by cutting Title IV, Part A funding for schools by about $300 million. (Source: FACT SHEET: House Republican Proposals Hurt Children, Students, and Borrowers, and Undermine Education).

So much for Republican rhetoric about increased funding for mental health programs to stem gun violence in schools.

Republicans claim spending taxpayer money on these schools is futile since these extra dollars have not resulted in improved performance. That is not true.

From a Northwestern University study, “Low-income students benefit most from increased spending. On average, these students spent about six more months in school, were 10 percentage points more likely to graduate high school, had 13 percent higher wages as adults, and were 6 percentage points less likely to live in poverty. Farther out, their family income increased by 17 percent.” (Source: The Benefits of Increased School Spending; www.school-spending-policy-research=brief-jackson.pdf) This is only one of many peer reviewed, published studies that identify the benefits of increased spending in underfunded schools.

My observation is the reason Republicans don’t want to spend White taxpayer money on these schools is pure and simple. It is racism. Republicans don’t want to improve opportunities for kids of color. Republicans also believe money is better spent on schools with predominantly White kids because they are more intelligent. No data to back this up, but Republicans don’t need data to prove what they are sure is true.

Protect high income tax cheaters

Republicans also planned to gut the $80 billion increase in Internal Revenue Service funding that was part of the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022. The $80 billion is one investment that will actually have a return on investment; the government will get $200 billion back over ten years. Republicans want to derail the IRS funding increase to protect taxpayers making over $400,000 annually that cheat on their taxes. They aim to protect the rich from paying their fair share of taxes and throw the financial burden of funding government on schmucks that file W-2s and can’t cheat.

Republicans appear to have failed here also. Surprising how there was no public outcry to protect rich, tax cheaters?

From the New York Times, “Still, because of the leeway that the I.R.S. has over how and when it spends the money, the clawback might not affect the agency’s plans in the next few years. Officials said in a background call with reporters that they expected no disruptions whatsoever from the loss of that money in the short term.

That’s likely because all of the $80 billion from the 2022 law was appropriated at once, but the agency planned to spend it over eight years. Officials suggested the I.R.S. might simply pull forward some of the money earmarked for later years, then return to Congress later to ask for more money.” (Source: New York Times, New Details in Debt Limit Deal: Where $136 Billion in Cuts Will Come From https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/business/debt-ceiling-agreement.html)

The ultimate government boondoggle

Republicans specifically made an exception so ethanol subsidies wouldn’t be a part of their domestic spending cuts. In fact, they authorized more government funding to help ethanol producers convert production to supplement jet fuel instead of just automobile fuel.

What this means to consumers is that we have higher gas prices because of government ethanol mandates. For farmers, it means much higher corn prices because they now burn up 45 percent of their crop in ethanol.  Because of tax breaks to ethanol producers, it means bigger government deficits. For the environment, it means increased contributions to climate change because ethanol is 24 percent more carbon intensive than gasoline. https://news.wisc.edu/at-bioenergy-crossroads-should-corn-ethanol-be-left-in-the-rearview-mirror/

While Republicans preach “smaller government”, ethanol is an example of big government over-reach, favoritism and their hypocrisy. While Republicans have no problem subsidizing a climate harmful industry while jacking up corn prices, they have no problem cutting government benefits for the US citizens that need help most.

Slower economic growth

Besides being ineffective in cutting the deficit and discriminatory by forcing all the cuts on poor people least able to afford them, the Republican plan would be bad for the economy. According to Reuters, “A Republican plan to cut federal spending in exchange for lifting the U.S. government’s debt ceiling would lower employment, slow economic growth and “meaningfully increase” the likelihood of a recession,” Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist told a Senate committee on Thursday.

Mark Zandi told the Senate Budget Committee that U.S. GDP growth would be 1.61% in 2024 if the Republican plan were enacted, compared with 2.23% otherwise, and lead to 790,000 fewer jobs.” https://www.reuters.com/world/us/amid-us-debt-ceiling-standoff-senate-democrats-dissect-republican-plan-2023-05-04/

Slow growth, job losses and increasing unemployment rates do not concern Republicans. Donald Trump had the lowest annual percentage GDP growth during his term and the lowest number of jobs created of any administration since those records were first kept in the 1930’s. Trump also increased the Unemployment rate from 4.7 to 6.3 percent (a 34 percent increase) during his time in office. Yet, Trump is the frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Success for Republican politicians is measured by what they’ve done to keep the US white and what they’ve done to make Black people’s lives more miserable. No better example of the latter than the Republican “deficit reduction plan”.

More blame…

Democrats deserve blame for their inability to balance the federal budget in the two years they controlled the House, Senate and presidency from 2021-23. Over the last 40 years, the Reagan/Bush I, Bush II and Trump Administrations all had huge deficits that increased dramatically during their terms and each ended in recession. Conversely, the Clinton and Obama presidencies slashed deficits and ended with dramatically lower unemployment at the end of their terms. They also had rapidly growing economies. Clinton had a $153 billion budget surplus after enacting a tax increase early in his presidency and left office with an even stronger economy than Obama’s.

Republicans have an excuse for not being able to figure this out. Democrats don’t; they should be bright enough to make the connection. If Biden and Democrats had balanced the budget by raising taxes on those most able to afford it, they would have given us stable, recession free growth (based on the Clinton and Obama record). They probably would have also reduced inflation.

A balanced federal budget would bring more jobs back to the US since every country’s trade balance equals the sum of government and private savings. Changing federal government savings from a $ trillion negative to a positive balance would have a huge impact on our trade balance.

Yes, Biden cut the federal budget deficit from $3.1 trillion in Trump’s last year in office to $1.1 trillion in 2022. And yes, Frugal Ron admits to being a real conservative and admits to his bias for an end to huge government deficits.

Yet it is obvious. When conservative policies are enacted to lower the deficit during a presidential term, we get increased growth and lower unemployment. The fact is that a $1.1 trillion deficit is far too high. Unfortunately, we won’t have another opportunity to lower it until after the 2024 election.  Hopefully Democrats will control the presidency, Congress and the Senate with big enough majorities to enact tax increases on those most able to afford it.

Destroying the Republican tax cut fantasy

Tax cuts for rich people do not pay for themselves. Republicans claim that after they cut taxes, tax revenue returns to the previous level in a few years. This is misleading. It is more accurate to use annual tax revenue data from before a Republican tax cut and use those values to draw a trend line into the future. When you compare the actual tax revenue after the cut to the trend line, the difference closely matches our annual deficits, in the period up to the next Republican tax cut. This is why Republican presidencies since 1980 all have huge deficits.

The math doesn’t lie. We can’t eliminate our deficits by cutting spending. Congressional Republicans campaigned promising they could find enough spending cuts to balance the budget. They failed spectacularly. Republican tax cuts for rich people got us into this mess and only tax increases on those most able to pay will get us out.

We cannot indefinitely continue running outsized federal government spending deficits. Rather than ineffectively balancing our budget by cutting support for our poorest citizens, it makes much more sense to balance our spending by taxing our richest ones. The top 10 percent of wealthiest US households have $52 trillion of wealth. The other 90 percent have $44 trillion. (Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/distribute/table/#quarter:133;series:Net%20worth;demographic:networth;population:all;units:levels) The richest people profit most from our capitalist system. They are the individuals that gain the most from preserving it. They should be willing to pay to protect the system.

Morality

The Republican deficit reduction plan was ineffective, racist and would have resulted in lower economic growth. It was immoral by placing the burden on poor (Black) people while sparing the rich and the favored (farmers) from any pain. What makes this truly hypocritical is that the plan was promoted by Republicans, who seem to believe they are “God’s Party”.

Christian hypocrisy didn’t begin with Donald Trump. I remember growing up in rural, west-central Wisconsin and figuring out decades ago that if I wanted to meet real Christians, the last place I wanted to look was the local Taylor Lutheran Church on a Sunday morning.

So, I guess I’m not surprised that people claiming they are Christians would take away food, medical care and shelter from the poor. At the same time claiming to believe: “For there will never cease to be poor in the land. Therefore I command you, ‘You shall open wide your hand to your brother, to the needy and to the poor, in your land.” Deuteronomy 15:11

For Republicans, that take joy in making Black people’s lives more miserable, I guess they missed the following verse; “We who are strong ought to bear with the failings of the weak and not to please ourselves.”  Romans 15:1

Seems like Jesus was questioning Republicans when he asked, “But if anyone has the world’s goods and sees his brother in need, yet closes his heart against him, how does God’s love abide in him?” 1 John 3:17

Nothing in the Bible seems to advocate taking from the poor and then expecting the poor to go out and immediately find jobs or a better job. Nowhere does the Bible describe that as charity.

While Republicans seem to think rich people are sacred and government should do everything to preserve their wealth, the Scriptures seem to look at this differently. “Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, ‘You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me.’ When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions.” Mark 10:21-22

Republicans wanted to use deficit reduction as an excuse to hinder the IRS from going after wealthy tax cheaters. The Bible also speaks of tax collectors. The Disciple Paul (later St. Paul), who once was a tax collector said, “That is also why you pay taxes, because the authorities are working for God when they fulfill their duties. Pay, then, what you owe them; pay your personal and property taxes and show respect and honor for them all.” Romans 13:6-7

God makes it clear that government officials are to deliver justice and assistance to the poor. “May they judge your people with righteousness and your poor with justice! May they defend the cause of the poor and give deliverance to the children of the needy…” Psalms 72:2,4

How does a religion, that in both the Old and New Testaments, continually tells rich people to give up their wealth to the poor to gain eternal happiness wind up being the religion of a political party that protects rich people’s wealth and takes food housing and medical care from the poor? And, how does an out-and-out socialist like Jesus Christ become the deity of today’s Republicans?

How does one correlate separating 3,900 brown skinned children from their parents (that came to the US legally applying for asylum) with supposed fealty to a religion that espouses, “The stranger who resides with you shall be to you as one of your citizens; you shall love him as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt. I am the LORD your God”. Leviticus 19:33-34. Or,

“The LORD watches over the foreigner and sustains the fatherless and the widow, but he frustrates the ways of the wicked.” Psalm 146:9

And last: “And the Lord God formed man of the dust of the ground,  and breathed into his nostrils the breath of life; and man became a living being.” Genesis 2:7. I’m completely at a loss for how Republicans somehow interpreted this as life begins at conception.

I keep having this recurring vision of an army of racist, make-believe Christians marching along, waving their Bibles, praying, reciting Bible chants, singing church songs and following their true Messiah, Donald Trump, on a one-way trip straight through the Gates of Hell. My vision, my story.

Summing-up

The Republican deficit reduction plan:

  • Would not have reduced our current deficit.
  • Would have slowed economic growth.
  • Would have increased unemployment.
  • Would have harmed educational results in underfunded schools.
    • Long term, would result in lower productivity in those students.
    • Long term, would result in lower taxable income from those students.
  • Would have deprived poorest citizens of food, health care and housing.
  • Would have continued the concentration of wealth in the US by shielding the wealthy from tax increases.

It is impossible to ignore the racism in the Republican plan. They concentrated all the pain of their spending cuts on the poorest, most vulnerable people. A disproportionate number of the people most harmed are Black. This is morally reprehensible. It is especially reprehensible to real Christians and Christian values.

This simply reinforces a point made often on this website. Being a Republican and a real Christian are mutually exclusive. You can be one or the other, but you can’t be both.

Moving along, the Republican deficit reduction plan is also fiscally irresponsible. We aren’t going to get rid of our federal government’s deficit without some serious tax increases.

The Republican deficit reduction plan was not pushed through by a fringe minority of Republicans. All Republicans in the House of Representatives voted for it. Republicans own this, whether when running for reelection or on their Judgement Day, if they believe in such a thing.

The good news is the Republican plan got little public support and failed. I like to think this is another sign that the silent majority of Americans believe, “Instead of each person watching out for their own good, watch out for what is better for others.” Philippians 2:4.

This whole fiasco has shown that Republicans are not a real political party that can be a partner in true deficit reduction. Congressional Republicans are an extension of Donald Trump’s mob of January 6, 2021. Remember, 139 of these House Republicans voted against certifying Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory. They can hardly be expected to support the reality of real deficit reduction.

Republicans are an angry mob of White racists trying to turn back the clock 75 years for women, minorities, Jews, Muslims, LGBT+ and anyone else that doesn’t fit into their mold. We can’t change these people from hating. But, by getting out and voting for Democrats every chance we get, we can make sure they never have enough power to legislate their hatred.


What a Difference!

Donald Trump at a European rally
Presidents Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, Ukraine

Less than two and a half years ago, Donald Trump, and by extension the United States, was the world’s laughing stock. Today, the US is the undisputed, most powerful country in the world. Once again, the US is what former President Ronald Reagan called, “the shining city upon a hill.”

During the Trump years, the United States was regarded as a fading power bypassed by China and lagging behind Europe and the Pacific Rim countries. While Donald Trump catered to the world’s worst dictators, President Joe Biden has re-established the US as the leader of the world’s good guys. For example, Germany refused to provide modern tanks to Ukraine until the US lead by providing tanks first. Under Biden, the US is once again the world’s arsenal of democracy.

Joe Biden transformed the wretched economy Trump left behind into the world’s economic powerhouse.

  • Trump is the only president, since employment records were first kept in the 1930’s, to have negative job growth during his term. Biden has created 11 million jobs since taking office. This is 1.5 million more jobs than before the pandemic. There has been a net gain of 740,000 manufacturing jobs during Biden’s term.
  • Biden has almost halved Trump’s end of term unemployment rate.
  • When Biden took office, there were more unemployed people than job openings. Now there are almost two job openings for every unemployed person.
  • The duration of unemployment has dropped by half sine Biden took office.
  • Trump had he lowest GDP increase during his term of any president since records were first kept in the 1930’s. Under Biden, inflation adjusted GDP growth is a total of 8 percent over the two years of Biden’s presidency, far above normal growth.

In addition:

  • Biden lowered the 2020 Trump budget deficit of $3.1  trillion (an all-time record) down to $1.1 trillion in 2022.
  • Biden cut federal government spending in 2022 by over $659 billion from Trump’s last year in office.

US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 3.2 Federal Government Current Expenditures and Receipts https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiLCJTdXJ2ZXkiXSxbIk5JUEFfVGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjg3Il0sWyJGaXJzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAyMCJdLFsiTGFzdF9ZZWFyIiwiMjAyMiJdLFsiU2NhbGUiLCItOSJdLFsiU2VyaWVzIiwiQSJdXX0= Accessed 03/30/2023

All this is happening while China’s economy is floundering. Much of the difference is the two nations’ approach to COVID. Trump still hasn’t come to grips with how deadly and dangerous COVID is. Trump’s strategy of blaming Democrats and the media for COVID and eventually just hoping it would go away resulted in thousands of preventable deaths and devastated our economy. In contrast, China and other east Asian and Oceania counties followed strict COVID mitigation policies. Their economies continued growing.

The biggest reason for the US’s success

Biden came into office and quickly used the Defense Authorization Act to finally get hospitals desperately needed N95 masks and other protective clothing. Biden kicked Trump’s political hacks out of the Center for Disease Center and replaced them with professionals.

Most important, Biden took a no expense is too great approach to getting every person in the US that wanted the COVID vaccine vaccinated as fast as possible. The US vaccines are phenomenally effective and virtually eliminated COVID deaths in people that are fully vaccinated. What this did was to remove our fear of leaving our homes. This had far more to do with our economic resurgence than any of Biden’s economic policies.

At the same time, the more contagious COVID variants made the previously successful containment policies countries such as China implemented less effective. China’s Zero COVID policy involved  quarantining vast sections of their country. After giving up on the Zero COVID policy, China is having major COVID outbreaks and deaths. It appears their vaccines and vaccination efforts are not as effective as the ones Joe Biden implemented. The net effect of all this is while the US economy is surging, China is in an economic retrenchment.

Why has the US regained its mojo?

The obvious difference between Biden and Trump is intelligence. I conservatively estimate Biden’s IQ is at least 50 points higher than Trump’s. The Baby Trump ballon in the above picture was a result of Trump not being bright enough to recognize the danger of climate change. Trump’s pulling the US out of the Paris Climate Accords directly impacted  the Europeans in the photo.

Trump does not have the intelligence or common sense to differentiate between real threats like COVID and climate change and his crazy conspiracies.

However, there is more to all this than intelligence. Biden is famous for his verbal gaffes. Yet, you don’t see NATO leaders mocking Biden like they did Trump at the 2019 NATO Summit with imitations of Trump’s pompous wind-bagging. And, you certainly won’t see Europeans parading around inflatable Biden in diapers balloons.

The difference is that Joe Biden commands the kind of respect Trump can only fantasize about. Biden stands for democracy and freedom. That resonates with people everywhere.

In contrast to the pathological liar Trump, Joe Biden is a good person. Biden treats others with respect and has empathy for others.

A few caveats…

Trumpism is a cult where his followers look at Trump as a living God. For his followers, criticizing their true Messiah is heresy. Conversely, Biden supporters look at Biden as a good person that tries to do the best he can. But, Biden is human. He makes mistakes.

Republican economic failures over the past 40 years have shown  you can’t build a solid, resilient economy on massive spending and huge deficits. I’ll be surprised if Biden can pull it off over the long term without a recession.

While Biden has lowered spending and deficits from Trump’s levels, that isn’t much to brag about. Biden and Democrats missed a generational chance to balance the federal budget. They should have increased tax rates on the rich back up to the US’s  historical levels and stopped the massive accumulation of wealth in the upper one percent of our population. We’ve had over 40 years of welfare for the rich. It was time for that to to end. We won’t have another chance to balance the federal budget until Democrats again control the presidency, the Senate and the House.

Nevertheless…

The US is in a much better place than we were two and  a half years ago. It is good to focus on Biden’s accomplishments and the how the rest of the world once again respects us. Considering what Trump left behind and where we are today, Joe Biden has truly “Made America Great Again!”

 

 

 


Why Rural People Are So Racist

Rural counties are the bedrock of the Republican Party. In many of these rural counties and voting districts, over 80 percent of voters vote Republican. Racism, rural America and today’s Republican Party are inseparably woven together.

We can accurately measure the level of racism in a group or geographical area by using a proxy measure. That measure is the percentage of people who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. The simple reality is that the Trump presidency was such a disaster that no rational voter wanting effective government would ever vote for Trump.  For those with doubts about this, please see the Appendix at the end of this article

Sadly, the obvious reason for Trump’s godlike devotion from his voters is their mutual level of racism. Hence, why the proxy measure of measuring racism is so accurate. All these voters know is that Donald Trump is the most racist president in their lifetimes. That is all that  matters.

It is particularly telling that the only viable Republican alternative to Trump is Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis. Governor DeSantis’s campaign doesn’t revolve around  ideas to improve our lives. He is focused on attracting Republican racist voters by denying Black history and the biology of sexual orientation in the classroom while spending Florida taxpayer money dumping unsuspecting immigrants into northeastern US cities.

Some background…

One thing Frugal Ron is an expert on is the people living in rural America. Frugal Ron was born and raised on a farm between two towns of about 350 people in Jackson County, Wisconsin. One can read about and talk about living in rural America. But, there is nothing like being raised in the rural United States and owning and operating a dairy and cash crop farm for 12 years (that ranked in the top 10 percent of gross income farms in the US at that time) to really understand farmers and rural people.

Before going further, a couple points…

First, not all rural people are racists. In farms and small towns, you will find some of the kindest, most decent, intelligent and honest people anywhere. These folks judge people by what is in their hearts, not by the color of their skin.  Of course, these people would never vote for Donald Trump. Sadly, these people are a distinct minority in rural America. Hence, the focus of this article.

Second, for the sake of space, simplicity and readability, when referring to racism, I am also including homophobia, transphobia, Islamophobia, anti-semitism and hatred of outspoken, powerful women; but not writing it out every time. Most Trump voters share more than one, or in many cases, all of these hatreds. Having written this, it is my observation that racist’s hatred for people born with Black skin is a whole level higher than their hatred of all the other groups combined. Even more telling, White racist’s fear of Black men drives Republican craziness about unrestricted gun ownership, assault rifles and the like.

Another thing I’ve learned is most urban Democrats have no idea of the level of racism that exists in the countryside. While listening to young, urban White people discussing how they try and stop their implicit racial bias (saying and doing things they don’t think are offensive, but are hurtful to people of color), I have to stop. In rural America, the racism and hatred is right up front. The “N word” is just part of the vocabulary and the hatred towards Black people is ever present. We definitely live in two worlds in the US.

Who are rural people?

Growing up, it always amazed me that after graduating from Taylor High School, the best and the brightest kids disappeared. Most went to college, some joined the military and a few got jobs somewhere else. Whatever, they were just gone. I never saw them again. They left, never to come back. I know the feeling well. I eventually did the same.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the ne’er-do-wells in school never left Taylor. Some others tried to make it in the outside world and came back. In Frank Sinatra’s signature song, “New York, New York”, the lyrics include the line, “If you can make it there (New York City), you can make it anywhere!” Conversely, if you can’t make it anywhere else, you are always welcome back in Taylor, Wisconsin. I think these generalizations are very accurate throughout rural America.

Another large group in rural areas are former farmers. Some of these folks failed to keep up with technology and were forced off their small farms. Others retired and left because their kids wouldn’t live in rural areas or wanted better career opportunities. Along with former farmers are people who worked for feed mills, machinery dealerships and such that were also displaced. These folks fought progress and lost.

Another group you’ll find in rural areas are large commercial farmers and the agribusiness people that support them. Folks that can survive in today’s agricultural environment are some of the sharpest and smartest business people anywhere. These people easily have the brains to see right through Trump’s lies and BS. Unfortunately, because of their racism, they choose not to. This is extremely disappointing.

Misconceptions and aggrievement

All of these groups have a lot of resentment. The US government poured $billions in the last 70 years trying to sustain small farmers and rural America. It was never enough. Many former farmers are forever embittered and are sure they are the victims of government and corporations that forced them out of business. Their injustice is amplified by their perceptions that Black people all live off welfare and sit around all day watching TV, having sex, eating pizza and drinking beer on the taxpayer’s dollar. Further, they believe Black people are predisposed to breaking the law. The only protection (besides their arsenals) White people have is the thin blue line of police that are constantly handcuffed by liberals.

Trump stepped in and managed “the politics of aggrievement” better than anyone. Rather than blame their own lack of initiative and education; it is easier for Trump supporters to blame Democrats, Jews and the media for their unfulfilled lives.

When Trump supporters say they see their traditional values under attack, it is important to know that their traditional values are racism, homophobia, transphobia, Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, hatred of powerful, outspoken women and a bastardized form of Christianity that favors taking from the poor and giving to the rich, separating children from their parents and glorification of constant lying and violence towards women. The disappearance of these values is the best thing that can happen to the United States.

Love is love.
Surviving racism

So, what causes this racism? Frugal Ron had a very typical rural upbringing. I remember growing up, listening to my father and his friends saying, “An awful lot of Niggers are going to have to starve to death before the rest learn how to work!”

My mother would tell anyone that would listen that colored people were better off when they were slaves. She regularly warned me that coloreds always carry knives and, “They’ll shiv you as look at you!”

Racism in rural areas is all pervasive. One Sunday (I was in sixth grade, or thereabout), I asked my Sunday School teacher why there was such a difference in the way church people and Jesus treated poor people. I’ll never forget his answer, “Jesus didn’t have to deal with Niggers.”

(Note: Carbon dated skulls with Negro features have been found in the area Jesus would have lived in at the time He lived. Not only that, Jesus’s hair was like pure wool, according to the Book of Daniel. That means His hair was kinky. The Book of Revelations says His feet were like burnished bronze. That means He was brown-skinned. Jesus was a Palestinian Jewish man who, as a child was able to hide from the King of Judaea by spending years in Egypt. So, He looked like an Egyptian. Working in Palestinian sunshine as a carpenter also meant His skin was darkened. The reality is, Jesus was far more likely a Black man than the White guy with a tan depicted in most Christian churches and literature.)

What happened?

So, getting to the crux of this article, why didn’t Frugal Ron turn out to be a racist, Trump supporter? And, what does this teach us about racism?

For one thing, I’m thankful I was born with enough intelligence to think for myself. Far more important are the life experiences that make us who we are.

More than anything in the world, I grew up wanting to be a farmer. In 1972,  after my sophomore year in college, I lined up a summer job at Quail Roost Farm in Rougemont, North Carolina.  Quail Roost Farm had the top show and production Guernsey herd in the US.

As soon as I got to the farm, the farm manager told me I wouldn’t be working with the cattle like I was promised. Instead, I was going to be on the field crew. My next shock was that I was the only White guy on the all Black crew of eight men. I’m sure they figured I would be on the next plane back to Wisconsin. Unfortunately, I spent all my money getting to North Carolina, so that wasn’t an option.

Anyway, that summer was one of the best in my life. My Black co-workers took me in as one of their own. I learned more about Southern culture and life than I ever could reading books.

On weekend nights, the White guys on the dairy crew would take me out and told me why I wasn’t getting to work with the cows. The state dairy milk production records association had caught the farm manager cheating on their milk production records. The last thing they wanted was some nosey kid from Wisconsin around the cows.

I never got to see or touch a cow that summer, but learned more about life than I could have imagined. I lost a bunch of idealism, but also learned skin color has nothing to do with honesty or integrity. The most important thing I learned is that people born with Black skin are just like people born with White skin. There are good and bad people in both groups. Most are just good people with hopes for the future and the same love for their families that most White folks have.

More life experiences…

After my farming career, I went back to the University of Wisconsin-Madison to finish up my bachelor’s degree. One of my favorite classes was algebra. I loved algebra and was really good at it. In my class, I wound up sitting next to a Black gal. We got to be friends and would compare weekly quiz grades. Unless I got a perfect score and tied her, her scores were always a couple points higher than mine.

So, here I was in a class I was great at and I was sitting right next to this gal with Black skin who was not only smarter than me, but also  better looking. Any illusions I ever had about White male supremacy were laid to rest in that Algebra 112 classroom..

What this means…

I actually worked with Black people in a setting where I was the minority.  I actually talked with Black people and listened to them. Over the years, I’ve gotten to know many other Black, Brown, Yellow and Red skinned people and many Jewish people. Compare my experiences with someone whose only contact with a Black person was buying a brat and beer at a Milwaukee Brewers game. That isolation from people who are different is how you maintain racism.

The same goes for homophobia. I grew up certain there was something terribly wrong with homosexuals and they needed to fix it.

The day care we sent our two-year old daughter to while my wife and I were both University of Wisconsin students (my post-farming academic tenure), was partnered with the education and child development departments at UW. The day care sent out a letter to all parents that they were hiring an openly Gay teacher.

By this time, I’d figured out homosexuality wasn’t contagious, so i didn’t object. The fellow they hired was just a great guy and my daughter loved him to death. For those Republicans that are aghast that we would let our daughter be influenced by a Gay person at an impressionable age, that daughter has been married to the same guy for over 12 years and they have three kids. If the Gay pre-school teacher was trying to groom our daughter to become a lesbian, he failed miserably.

The point of all these throwback memories is that my not becoming a racist Trump supporter has little to do with my genetics and nothing to do with the water I drank. It was all about my life experiences breaking me out of the mental prison of racism I was raised in. Understanding this journey is key to understanding the causes of rural racism. The antidote to racism and all the rest is living and working with people who are different.

I’m not so idealistic that I think we can eliminate racism by simply intermingling. Some of the most racist Republicans I know were born and raised in privileged urban areas.

People like living around people who think like they do. Consequently, White rural people will continue isolating themselves. The only cure for the racism of  most White, rural Republicans over 60 is dying. But, for many younger, White rural people moving to urban areas, there is hope.

Appendix

Over and over on this website, we have documented the Trump disaster. However, for those that need a reminder:

  • Trump is the only president to have negative job growth during his term since these records were first kept in the 1930’s.
  • Trump had the lowest GDP growth of any president since those records were kept in the 1930’s.
  • Trump’s $3.1 trillion government spending deficit in 2020 is the largest in history. Trump increased the federal spending deficit each year he was in office.
  • Trump dramatically increased federal government spending each year he was in office. During his term, he increased federal government spending over 63 percent. No president, Democrat or Republican, has been so spend crazy since World War II.
  • The US’s international trade deficit increased every year Trump was in office. The 2020 trade deficit was 47% larger than  President Barack Obama’s last trade deficit.
  • The Holy Grail of conservatism is for government to keep out of the marketplace and never pick winners and losers. Trump violated this rule with his ineffectual trade war. By protecting the US steel industry with 30 percent tariffs, he caused immeasurable harm to US manufacturers competing with foreign made products using cheaper steel.
  • Trump increased the unemployment rate by 36 percent during his term in office.
  • Following the record 28 percent drop in annual abortions achieved during the Obama term, Trump turned around 30 years of declining abortions in the US by having more abortions at the end of his term than at the start. Trump compounded the abortion problem by nominating three Supreme Court justices who are completely out of synch with people in the US. Following passage of unenforceable abortion laws in Republican states, abortions are now more available and cheaper than ever.
  • On foreign policy, Trump showed that his real master is Vladimir Putin. For decades, Putin has tried to undermine Western faith in democratic elections while trying to destroy NATO. Trump has been a willing pawn, even ordering all US military personnel out of Germany on his last day in office. (The order was quickly deep-sixed by the US Joint Chief of Staffs.)
  • Trump’s response to the COVID pandemic was the most disastrous policy response to a threat in US history. While Oceania, east Asian countries and Canada controlled the pandemic with minimal life lost, Trump ignored the advice of the US experts that leadership in those counties followed. Trump claimed COVID was something like the flu, would go away soon and was a concoction of Democrats and the media. During Trump’s term, the US racked up the world’s highest number of COVID deaths  and one of the highest per capita COVID death rates. His misinformation campaign became the heart of Republicans aligning health care decisions (not getting vaccinated) as a mark of their fealty to Trump. This resulted in another half million more people, almost all of whom were not vaccinated, dying of COVID in the next two years after Trump left office.

With his record high deficits record high spending and market interference, Donald Trump is the antitheses of a conservative. His ability to muck up everything he touched illustrates his incompetence. His record high number of lies during his term made it impossible to trust or believe him. Trump’s efforts to undermine the democracy our ancestors fought for is a strange kind of patriotism.

Trump’s lack of intelligence combined with his repulsive behavior made him and the US the world’s laughing stock. Not since the British burned the White House during the War of 1812 has the US had so little international respect as during Trump’s presidency..


Inflation!

Voters rate inflation as the most important issue in the United States today. In this article, Frugal Ron will try and explain what inflation is, how we got to where we are today, how to fix it and most important too many people, can we blame Joe Biden for all of it?

One definition of inflation is that it is a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money. The definition Frugal Ron likes to use is “too much money chasing too few goods and services”. In other words, inflation is caused by an imbalance of too much demand and too little supply. 

We’re going to look at each side of the equation separately. First, why is there too much money in our economy? Republicans like to blame Democrats for passing the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and blame our problems on that single spending item.

Federal Government Expenditures and Savings ($ trillion)
2020 2021 2022 Quarter 1
Total federal govt. expenditures 6.920 7.197 5.600
Total federal govt. savings -3.217 -2.937 -1.042
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Table 3.2 Federal GovernmentCurrent Receipts and Expenditures https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey    

The difference between 2020 and 2021 spending (the last year of the Trump Administration and the first year of the Biden Administration) was 4 percent. The 2022 value includes the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. This 4 percent spending increase  certainly isn’t inflationary compared to the spending increases of  Republican presidents from Ronald Reagan on.

Table 1. Spending by President
Annual Federal Govt. Spending (billions)
President Year before taking office Last year in office Percent Change Annual percent change*
Ronald Reagan – Rep. 1981-1988 $645.0 $1,171.1 82% 8%
George H.W. Bush – Rep. 1989-1992 $1,171.1 $1,524.8 30% 7%
Bill Clinton – Dem. 1993-2000 $1,524.8 $1,943.6 27% 3%
George W. Bush – Rep. 2001-2008 $1,943.6 $3,383.1 86% 7%
Barack Obama – Dem. 2009-2016 $3,383.1 $4,200.4 24% 3%
Donald Trump – Rep. 2017-2020 $4,200.4 $6,932.9 65% 14%
* Calculated by averaging percent spending change of each year in office.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Table 3.2 Federal Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures; Line 43.

Note: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates totals on a calendar year basis (January 1 to December 31). Quarterly data is annualized. That means that if the first quarter data continued throughout the year exactly the same, this would be the annual value. The data is also seasonally adjusted. This means we can make apples to apples comparisons when we compare 2020 and 2021 annual totals to 2022 quarterly totals.

The falling deficits in 2021 and the dramatic drop in 2022 spending and deficits are because of the impact of COVID vaccinations resulting in people emerging from their economic hibernation. Tax receipts increased and social service costs decreased as people went back to work and started spending more. The American Rescue Plan certainly was part of this recovery by putting money in the hands of people most likely to spend it.

Biden can justifiably take credit (especially considering the mess he inherited from Trump) for the Herculean task of rolling out COVID vaccines and boosters to everyone that wanted them. We spent a year watching Trump refuse to take COVID seriously.  Rather than take the kind of steps to contain the disease that worked so successfully for east Asian and Oceania countries, Trump spent his time blaming  Democrats and the media for reporting the number of COVID deaths,

Relatively small steps. like Biden’s invoking the Defense Production Act so that front line health care workers finally got enough Personal Protective Equipment made a major psychological difference. Finally getting a relatively healthy population led to a healthy economy. This is directly responsible for today’s lower government spending and deficits, compared to when Trump left office.

While Biden deserves credit for what he did, he deserves blame for what he didn’t do.. Every president’s first year income and expenditures are a carryover from the previous presidency.  Budgets are passed every two years. Consequently, Biden had to deal with the last year of a budget passed and signed by Trump.

If we look at recent history (and the above table on presidential  sending and the table below on deficits), the Regan/Bush I Administration brought us record deficits and spending increases and ended in a recession. Bill Clinton came in office, passed a tax increase, balanced the budget and we had unprecedented economic growth. Bush II took office and immediately set new records for spending and borrowing. He left the country with the worst recession since the Great Depression. Barack Obama came into of-ice and inherited record deficits from the Bush II recession. He did cut the increase in spending but floundered until his second term when he passed a tax increased that dropped the deficit by half. Unemployment plummeted and his economic boom lasted into the Trump presidency. Donald Trump came into office and set all new borrowing and deficit records. Not surprisingly, he left the country in an even worse recession than Bush II’s.

If you want to blame Joe Biden for today’s inflation, forget the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. A far more logical cause for our present inflation is the $2.9 trillion deficit we had in 2021. Even the first quarter 2022 deficit of over $1 trillion is unacceptable. Biden had the opportunity, with Democratic majorities in Congress, to pass a balanced budget and put the economy on a strong foundation. He missed that opportunity. Wiping out Trump’s  deficit causing tax cuts and raising tax rates on high income people would have maintained our present growth with much less inflation.

In summary, Biden’s spending did not cause today’s inflation. However, if he had immediately passed a tax increase to wipe out the unacceptable deficits he inherited from Trump’s budget that stretched into Biden’s term, he could have lowered inflation.

Table 2. Net Savings by President
Net Savings (billions)
President First Year in Office Last year In Office Average
Ronald Reagan – Rep. 1981-1988 -$104.3 -$201.0 -$210.5
George H.W. Bush – Rep. 1989-1992 -$194.3 -$359.2 -$269.5
Bill Clinton – Dem. 1993-2000 -$328.7 +$152.9 -$108.3
George W. Bush – Rep. 2001-2008 +$1.50 -$774.2 -$382.3
Barack Obama – Dem. 2009-2016 -$1,475.3 -$717.0 -$1,026.8
Donald Trump – Rep. 2017-2020 -$540.0 -$3,251.6 -$1,482.4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 3.2 Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures; Line 49.
Where the money came from…

IfJoe Biden’s spending didn’t cause today’s inflation, what did? Private savings is a big part of the answer.

Frugal Ron actually predicted today’s inflation. Only problem was  he was four years early with his prediction. Yes, timing is everything.

When Trump came into office, Frugal Ron predicted his out-of-control spending and deficits would result in high inflation. What wasn’t expected was that almost 93 percent of Trump’s increased deficit (compared to Obama’s last year in office) didn’t get spent.

While Trump was breaking every non-recession deficit spending record in history, corporations used their windfall to puff-up their balance sheets and rich people invested their tax cuts in stocks and bonds and other savings instruments. This didn’t do anything to help the economy but it also didn’t trigger any inflation.

Back to the present, when I wrote earlier in this article about the imbalance of too much money chasing too few goods, the too much money didn’t come from the slight increase in federal government spending. It did come from people and companies lowering their annual  savings.

Near term savings peaked in the second quarter of 2020 as corporations stockpiled the money they made from Trump’s corporate tax cuts. In the first quarter of 2021, savings stayed high. As the COVID-19 vaccine became available and our lives normalized, individuals and companies went on a wild spending spree driven by pent-up demand. Again, this spending wasn’t fueled by $277 billion in extra government spending, it was fueled by an almost $3 trillion  drop in annual private savings.

Net Private Savings US ($ trillions)
2020 Quarter 2 2021 Quarter 1 2022 Qtr 1
Net private savings 5.077 4.828 1.973
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 5.1 Savings and investmenthttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

It is important to remember, these savings are annual not cumulative. People have cut the amount they were saving. They have not dipped into the large amount they previously saved. These savings numbers could go negative and have the potential to fuel more inflation.

Where the money went…

COVID essentially shut down much of the US economy in 2020. People weren’t buying as they accumulated savings and without demand, it became an easy decision to shut non-essential manufacturing plants while workers were afraid to show up.

While much has been made of shipping boondoggles and overseas supply problems, imports exploded by 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2019.. These 2022 import levels have never been seen before in the US.

US Imports ($ trillions)

2019 Qtr 4

2022 Qtr 1

Percent change

Imports

3.041

3.910

29%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 4.1 Foreign Transactions, https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US rose only marginally. Especially, when adjusted for inflation (GDP – Chained).

Gross Domestic Product – US ($ trillions) 2019 Qtr 4 2022 Qtr 1
GDP 21.7 24.4 12%
GDP – Chained 19.2 19.7 2%
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.6 Real Gross Domestic Product, Chaind Dollars https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey
Catching our breath…

There is a lot going on here and a lot more to cover. I’ve tried to summarize the impacts of fiscal policy. That is government spending. The lowering of annual private savings has far more impact on our inflation.

Even more important when we talk about controlling inflation is monetary policy. This is the Federal Reserve’s domain. And, then there are areas completely immune from fiscal and monetary policy that have huge impacts on inflation, like energy and food.

Before going there, I want to talk about imports. Typically, we look at high levels of imports as being a bad thing. This is not necessarily the case when we have a full employment economy, This is what we have now in the US. The unemployment rate is 3.5 percent and we still added 390,000 new jobs in May.  In this environment, imports resemble a relief valve on a pressure cooker. 

At the start of this article, I defined inflation as too much money chasing too few goods and services. As consumers and businesses lowered their savings in 2021 and into 2022, the too much money would have caused far higher inflation without our record imports.

Things could have been better. Another Joe Biden failing was not immediately reversing Trump’s tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and other goods. These tariffs increased costs for US consumers and are another cause for price inflation in the US.

Example: If a manufacturer has the price of their raw materials increased by 30 percent because of Trump’s tariffs, that increases the cost of production by that much. If the manufacturer has a 40 percent margin built into their price, the 30 percent tariff is now reflected in a 42 percent cost increase to the next level of the retail chain. If there is another step before the consumer and that step also has a 40 percent margin, the cost increase to the final US consumer is almost 59 percent because of Trump’s 30 percent tariff.

Trump put these tariffs in place to reduce US trade deficits. These tariffs along with all the other trade agreement renegotiations didn’t work. Even with all these in place, we currently have record trade deficits. Republicans can’t blame this on Biden. He hasn’t changed the trade policies he inherited from Trump.

As always, a nation’s trade balance is defined by: Exports –  Imports = Private savings +  Government savings. If  the US wants to lower its trade deficit, it should have a balanced federal budget and make government savings equal zero. Better yet, have a government surplus.

But, getting back to inflation, eliminating Trump’s trade barriers will lower inflation.

How US inflation ranks globally

Inflation is a global problem. While I don’t want to minimize the impact of inflation in the United States, many countries are far worse off than us. In fact, compared to other industrialized countries, the US is about middle of the road in controlling inflation.

Also, countries like China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada that followed the COVID containment advice Donald Trump spurned had much less devastating death and economic losses than the US. It isn’t a coincidence that these countries are less impacted by inflation than the US.

In the U.S. and around the world, inflation is high and getting higher

If current inflation is related to the severity of a country’s COVID losses, Bidden prevented much more serious inflation in the US by aggressively providing COVID vaccinations to all that wanted them.

Monetary policy and the Federal Reserve Board

The Federal Reserve Bank, overseen by the Federal Reserve Board, is the chief government instrument for keeping inflation in check. They try and do this, with varying levels of effectiveness, by attempting to control the nation’s money supply and interest rates. 

Typically, the Fed required banks to keep 10 percent of their deposits in reserve. If a local bank wanted to make a $10 million loan and they had $1 million of extra money in reserve, the bank could make the loan and the Federal Reserve Bank would loan the local bank the extra $9 million. This is how the Fed increased the money supply. 

The Federal Reserve Bank would dictate the interest rate that the local bank would pay the Fed. More businesses would obviously borrow money at two percent interest than if the interest rate was six percent. With low interest rates, the money in our economy grows faster. Going back to my original definition of inflation, too much money chasing too few goods, one can see how the Fed has the ability to create inflation by creating too much money.

At the end of 2018, Trump’s bubble economy was starting to fizzle out. Trump was browbeating the Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell, who Trump appointed, to lower interest rates.  For whatever reason, the Fed started dramatically lowering interest rates close to zero. Businesses and individuals borrowed more money, the Fed created much more money and Trump’s bubble economy kept going.

It became clear in March of 2020 that the dysfunctional Trump was incapable of minimizing COVID-19’s destruction. The US economy was crashing and the Fed had all but exhausted it ’s chief tool for reviving the economy.  Interest rates were already close to zero. 

The Fed did lower interest rates it charged banks to zero. To get more money into the economy, they also lowered banks’ reserve requirements to zero. Desperate to increase the nation’s money supply, the Fed started Quantitative Easing, the buying of private securities. They also instituted a number of other policies to buoy the economy.

What did the Fed do in response to the COVID-19 crisis?

All of this is going on while Trump is running up record government spending deficits.  As COVID is coming under control, consumers and businesses are dramatically cutting their annual savings on a wild spending spree. 

Hindsight is always perfect. It is easy to say the Fed should have pulled in the reins of money supply earlier, but no one has perfect real time information. The Fed reversed their Qualitative Easing and most importantly, has started raising interest rates. Currently, interest rates for borrowers are between 4.5 and 5 percent. That is in the historical interest rate range.

Raising interest rates is certainly not a universal cure for high inflation. Interest rates are a production cost for businesses and increases get reflected in higher costs to consumers. But to emphasize, the FederalReserve Bank is the best tool we have for bringing inflation under control in today’s political environment.

Immune from fiscal and monetary policy

Energy is a major cause of our current inflation that is immune to our best efforts to contain. Republicans love to blame high gasoline prices on President Biden. However, gas prices were rising before Biden took office. 

Obviously, a big reason for high energy prices is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent boycotts of Russian oil and gas. While the boycotts are noble, the result is that Russia is selling a smaller amount of product for a lot more money per unit and consequently is making more money off energy than before their invasion. A the same time, countries boycotting Russian energy are dealing with high inflation. International leaders are working to fix this.

One more of the Trump disasters that has contributed to our inflation is his killing the Iranian Nuclear Agreement. President Barack Obama put together this historic agreement that stopped Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Perhaps more important, the agreement integrated Iran into the world economy. After Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Iran won’t deal with us. They have no incentive to increase oil production because of sanctions we installed on what they can buy. And, they are very close to having a nuclear weapon. Trump’s blunder gave us one less oil trading partner and one more hostile nation close to being a nuclear power.

Climate change and the need to wean from fossil fuels is our world’s most pressing issue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown us that the US has no real energy policy. The high gas prices we have don’t seem to alter people’s driving habits.

A number of solar projects have been cancelled or indefinitely postponed because of Trump’s tariffs on foreign produced solar panels. Biden finally eased them, but still hasn’t removed them. That is a mistake.

People don’t like major power line projects and they don’t want huge solar or wind farms in their backyards. The best long term solution is to de-regulate power companies and turn innovation loose. Small scale projects, perhaps co-ops, that produce electricity and sell their excess at retail prices without interference from established power companies are the future. 

Since both Russia and Ukraine were major grain exporters, the war and trade embargoes raised international and domestic food prices. Ukraine was also a major fertilizer exporter. Increases in US fertilizer and fuel prices raise the cost of production for US farmers. Cost of production increases are passed onto consumers. Like energy prices, food prices are immune to both fiscal and monetary management.

Consequences of inflation

This year, the federal government will spend $413 billion on interest payments on the national debt of $28 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. https://www.thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024

The average interest rate paid on this debt is 1.4 percent. With some simple multiplication, one can see the impact a four fold increase in interest rates would have on the federal budget. 

Another problem with inflation is the impact on bondholders. For easy figuring, let’s assume a major Chinese bank has a one year $ 1 billion treasury bond paying 2 percent interest at the end of the term. Let’s also assume the US has an 8 percent annual inflation rate. At the end of the term, the Treasury Department pays the Chinese bank $1.02 billion. However, because of inflation and the 8 percent drop in the value of the dollar, the real value (or buying power) of the $1.02 billion is actually only $938.4 million. The Chinese won’t make that mistake again.

The consequences of inflation on our national debt are significant and also significant for the ability to sell treasury bonds when inflation is high. This is where the doomsday scenario of a government default gets repeated. This is probably overblown. Trump made us immune to $multi-trillion deficits.

The major consequences of inflation falls on us. Inflation does not hit everyone equally. If you are a renter in an already tight market, you are really screwed. Annual rent renewals in some cities are up 40 to 50 percent. Low income people are the ones who usually suffer most.

Wrapping-up

The main causes of today’s  inflation in the US are the large deficits in the 2021 federal budget Biden inherited from Trump, the unprecedented reduction in private savings in 2021, an overzealous  Federal Reserve that should have put the brakes on monetary growth sooner and the war in Ukraine.

For those that are looking to blame Joe Biden, there are plenty of opportunities. Biden’s sending is not a significant cause of today’s inflation. When blaming Biden, focus on what he didn’t do; balance the federal budget and eliminate Trump’s trade restrictions.

The most important part of this article is, what can be done to rein in price increases?

  • The Federal Reserve will do most of the work containing price increases by raising interest rates. Inflation is as much psychological as fact driven. When consumers start thinking  they don’t need a new car (or any other purchase) now, but are going to buy it because they expect it will be much more expensive next year, we have a problem. It is the Fed’s job to make this kind of speculation expensive with higher borrowing costs. The trick is to do this without setting off a recession.
  • The opportunity to control inflation with fiscal (government spending and taxes) management passed. If Republicans win the House and/or the Senate this November, we will need to wait until the Democrats control the presidency and both Houses of Congress again for any fiscal reform, like balancing the budget. Today’s Republicans aren’t a serious political party. The only solution they offer to stop inflation is to reinstall Donald Trump as president. Considering Trump’s history of breaking every deficit and percent spending increase record in existence, he would be the worst possible inflation cure imaginable. In our dysfunctional political system, Republicans will do everything possible to prolong inflation through the 2024 presidential election. “Party over country” is their motto.
  • Biden could help lower inflation by reversing all of Trump’s tariffs and trade restrictions. He can do this without Congress. If he renegotiates major trade agreements like the revised NAFTA (now the USMCA), he needs Congressional approval.
  • Deregulating the electricity industry is probably another fantasy unless Democrats hold the presidency and both houses of Congress. If deregulating electricity brought about even a fraction of the innovation deregulating the phone industry brought, we would be well on our way to controlling energy costs with clean electricity production.

What I am not suggesting to lower inflation is capitulating to Russia and forcing Ukraine into subservience or ending the country’s existence. Russia needs to be punished even after hostilities end. Eliminating trade restrictions on Russia should only be considered after Vladimir Putin dies or is removed from power.

Many things are worse than inflation. Appeasement of a bullying dictator with illusions of empire is one of those things. If we want to combat inflation, far more effective is voters maintaining Democratic majorities in Congress and voting for a strong Democratic president in 2024.


The Texas Abortion Law, Christianity & Where We Go From Here

Republicans seem intent on rolling back time and installing their version of a Christian moral order. Their first target is abortion and their means of attack is the recently enacted Texas abortion law.

What has the Texas abortion law accomplished?  Texas legislators passed and Republican Governor Greg Abbott signed SB 8, the United States’s most draconian law restricting abortions. The law went into effect on September 1, 2021.  The law deputizes private citizens to sue anyone who “aids or abets” the provision of an abortion after six weeks post conception or after detection of a fetal heartbeat. Successful plaintiffs receive a minimum of $10,000.

According to Texas state data, the number of abortions in Texas dropped by half in the first month the law went into effect (compared to the same month in 2020). However, researchers at the University of Texas (UT) took the Texas state data a step further and counted Texas women getting abortions out-of-state. They found the law only reduced abortions by less than 10 percent. 

According to the UT study, “We obtained data on Texas residents who received abortion care between August 1 and December 31, 2021 at 34 of the 44 open (abortion) facilities in Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Oklahoma—states where we expected Texans to travel based on past reports. In August 2021, the month prior to the implementation of SB 8, 235 Texas residents received abortion care at one of these 34 facilities. Between September and December 2021, an average of 1,391 Texans per month obtained abortions at these out-of-state facilities, with monthly totals ranging from 1,330 to 1,485. These data undercount the total number of Texans receiving care out of state since we did not obtain data from 10 facilities in these states, and it does not include Texans who have traveled to other U.S. states for care since September 2021.” http://sites.utexas.edu/txpep/files/2022/03/TxPEP-out-of-state-SB8.pdf

Besides out of state travel, Texans also used medical abortions. These were not counted in the University of Texas study. Aid Access (aidaccess.org) is an Austrian based non-profit that provides medical abortions through the mail. The actual drugs are manufactured in India. The organization provides consultation and charges $110 for the pills and service.

Aid Access does not specify how many Texas women received medical abortions from their organization. They do report that an average of 1,100 women ordered pills per month from them. That is triple the number of women that ordered medication abortions from them before the Texas abortion law was implemented.

Women are also able to buy medication abortion drugs over-the-counter in Mexico. Mexico legalized abortion last September. For many Texas women, travel to Mexico for an abortion is much easier than going to other US states. Women getting abortions or medical abortion drugs in Mexico weren’t counted in the University of Texas study.

In summary, the University of Texas study documented a less than 10 percent reduction in Texas abortions during their four month study. The UT study did not include:

  • Abortions performed at the 10 open abortion facilities in Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Oklahoma that did not report data on Texas women getting abortions at their facilities.
  • Texas women getting abortions at US clinics in states not listed above.
  • Texas women getting abortions in Mexico.
  • Texas women getting medical abortions from Aid Access or other online providers.
  • Texas women getting over the counter medical abortion drugs in Mexico.

People across the country pulled together to help these women. Planned Parenthood built a large clinic in southern Illinois in relatively close proximity to many of the states outlawing or restricting abortions. They have donors covering bus transportation, motels and the procedure. Clinics in New York also have funding for airfare, lodging and abortions. Staff at these facilities make all the arrangements.

So what does this say about the Texas abortion law? Clearly, the drop in Texas abortions is far smaller than the 10 percent figure reported in the University of Texas study. The actual percentage drop in abortions is probably in the low single digits. Even worse for Republicans, the most economically disadvantaged women that weren’t able to travel out of state or use other means to get an abortion are going to have predominately Brown and Black skinned babies. This has to be discouraging to Republicans who spent four years during the Trump Administration doing everything possible to keep America white.

So, if the Texas experiment failed, why are other states rushing to make the same mistake? First of all, I don’t think red state lawmakers can admit the Texas law failed. Worse, they don’t want to admit they were outsmarted and outmaneuvered by Texas women and other women’s groups nationwide. Republicans live in a fantasy state of denial.

The deeper reason these efforts continue may well be that Republican men and women are jealous. They can’t tolerate the reality that women using birth control and with abortion as a back-up enjoy sex as much as men. Even worse, these women have the power to make their own life and career decisions. Maybe these Republicans are jealous of women that enjoy passion and intimacy?

Since SB 8 was unsuccessful, how can we dramatically reduce abortions?

If the goal of SB 8 was to significantly reduce the number of abortions, the effort failed. Another way to measure the impact of SB 8 is to compare results to other efforts to reduce abortions. The table below illustrates the impact of birth control on reducing abortions. 

Annual Abortion Number Changes During Presidential Terms

President Number of abortions in year before taking office Number of abortions during last year in office Percent change during term
Bill Clinton – Democrat   1,528,930    1,313,000  -14%
George W. Bush – Republican   1,313,000    1,212,350  -8%
Barack Obama – Democrat   1,212,350  874,100 -28%
Donald Trump – Republican  874,100 930,160 +8%
Source: Guttmacher Institute

 

More details are at https://www.frugalron.com/republicans-the-real-pro-abortion-political-party/

Here is a quick summary of what caused the dramatic drop in the number of abortions in the US since 1992. During the eight year Clinton Administration, Title X family planning funding was dramatically increased for five million families. Title X is the country’s only national, federally funded family planning program. First created with bipartisan support during the Nixon administration, the program has long provided no-and low-cost contraception counseling and dispensation to those who would otherwise be unable to afford or access it. Clinton also signed legislation requiring federal employees’ heath insurance plans pay for birth control. This impacted 1.2 million women of childbearing age.

During President George W. Bush’s term, his FDA did everything they could to keep the Morning After Pill off the market. They failed. During Bush’s Administration, the Morning After Pill went from being a prescription only product to being sold over the counter to anyone over 18. By the end of Bush’s tenure, Emergency Contraceptives were sold legally over the counter to anyone. Access and use of the Morning After Pill was the primary reason abortions continued dropping during the Bush years.

President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act provided free birth control to all women buying individual health insurance policies. In 29 states (including Texas) and the District of Columbia, employers meeting certain requirements were required to provide free birth control to their employees. This requirement and the wider adaption of Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARCs) were the main reasons for the dramatic 28 percent drop in annual abortions during Obama’s term. (LARCs are 20 times more effective than the birth control pill in preventing unwanted pregnancies. They are close to 100 percent effective. If a woman wants to become pregnant, she can just have the implant removed. Depending on the option, LARCs last from two months to ten years.)

Donald Trump, during his single term in office, implemented a new rule that barred any provider in the Title X network from so much as mentioning abortion, even if a patient asked about it. This resulted in seven states and Planned Parenthood dropping out of the program. The Title X program went from seeing 4 million patients in 2017 to 1.5 million patients in 2020, a decrease of over 60 percent, Planned Parenthood’s nationwide clinics were a major source of free contraceptives and education. https://19thnews.org/2021/10/title-x-contraception-family-planning/

Trump tried but failed to end the Affordable Care Act. However, he did make every effort to sabotage it and the free contraceptive benefit. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/10/09/six-ways-trump-has-sabotaged-the-affordable-care-act/

Restricting access to birth control and information during Donald Trump’s term in office resulted in an 8 percent increase in abortions.

This is extremely important. During 30 years of making birth control more available (and often free), annual abortions dropped 44 percent in the US. This changed while Donald Trump was president. The turnaround in annual abortions was not a coincidence. It is a direct result of Trump’s restricting access to contraceptives.

While there are many smaller reasons for the drop in abortions over the last three decades, one effort we know was insignificant are Republican restrictions on abortion access enacted on the state level. The US lowered the number of abortions by 666,600 annually between 1992 and 2017. If this occurred because of Republican abortion clinic closures and abortion restrictions, logically, there should have been an extra 666,600 more babies born in 2017 than in 1992. However, the 3,853,472 live births in the US in 2017 was the lowest in 30 years.

The failure of the Texas abortion law to make any real impact on the number of abortions and the increase in abortions because of Donald Trump’s actions while president underscore what Frugal Ron and readers of this website have known for years. There is no such thing as an anti-abortion Republican. Laws restricting abortion access don’t work. Making contraceptives more available, and in a best case scenario free, dramatically lowers the number of abortions.

As far as morality, making abortions illegal doesn’t make the US more moral. It simply makes hundreds of thousands of women living in red states that never even received a parking ticket before, into criminals for violating their state’s laws on abortion. If Republicans want to restore morality in the US,  they should dump Donald Trump as their party leader.

 If Texas Republicans just wanted to match the pathetically low drop in abortions that SB 8 obtained, they could make minor tweaks requiring more employers to offer free birth control. Or, they could dramatically slash the number of abortions by offering free birth control, including LARCs, to all women.

The bottom line on the Texas abortion law is this. It failed spectacularly measured by the number of abortions it prevented.

Republican conservatism, a myth

If the Texas abortion law didn’t make a dent in the number of abortions, why are Republicans and their Republican Supreme Court so focused on repeating this foolishness nationwide? It certainly isn’t because of conservatism. The core belief for true conservatives is that individuals can make much better decisions than government can. 

What the Bible says about when life begins…

Many Republicans profess that enacting abortion laws (even if they aren’t effective) is doing God’s work in returning morality to the US. They claim life begins at conception. There is no Biblical basis for this. In fact, the Bible makes clear that life begins at first breath. 

“Genesis 2:7 is clearest. The first human (Adam) became a ‘living being’ (nefesh hayah, ‘a living breath’) when God blew into its nostrils and he started to breathe. Before taking his first breath, he was just a shell. Human life begins when you start breathing, Biblical writers thought. It ends when you stop. That’s why the Hebrew word often translated ‘spirit’ (ruah) — ‘life force’ might be a better translation — literally means ‘wind’ or ‘breath.” 

“Exodus 21:22-25 describes a case where a pregnant woman jumps into a fight between her husband and another man and suffers injuries that cause her to miscarry. Injuries to the woman prompt the normal penalties for harming another human being: an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, a life for a life. Killing the woman is murder, a capital crime.The miscarriage is treated differently, however — as property loss, not murder. The assailant must pay a fine to the husband. The law of a life for a life does not apply. The fetus is important, but it’s not human life in the same way the pregnant woman is.”

“A few passages talk about someone called by God before birth: ‘The LORD called me from the womb. From the innermost parts of my mother, God named me … and said to me, ‘You are my servant Israel, in whom I’ll be glorified” (Isaiah 49:1-3).

“Here, the one called is the nation Israel, not an individual. A nation of course can’t occupy a womb. The language is figurative not literal. It isn’t describing prenatal biology or pinpointing when human life begins. It’s affirming God’s power and Israel’s calling to a special mission in the world.”

“Other passages make the same point by saying someone’s called by God before they’re even conceived (Genesis 18:9; 1 Samuel 1:17; Luke 1:31). I’ve not heard anyone make the case, based on these texts, that human life begins before conception.”

“It’s hard to ask biblical texts the modern question, ‘when does human life begin?’ because the Bible has a very different understanding of human reproduction. Biblical writers don’t talk about sperm fertilizing eggs. They talk about male ‘seed’ planted in fertile female ground. Just as a seed becomes a plant when it emerges from the ground, so too a man’s planted seed becomes another human being when it emerges from the womb.” https://www.huffpost.com/entry/abortion-what-the-bible-says-and-doesnt-say_b_1856049

The bottom line here pertaining to abortion is that it is impossible to murder someone that was never alive.

What the Bible says about birth control…

As noted above, over the last 30 years, providing free birth control or making it more available resulted in dramatic drops in abortions. Logically, if the goal is to reduce abortions, we should do everything possible to make the most effective birth control more available.

It doesn’t take long to figure out that while there aren’t any anti-abortion Republicans, there are lots of anti-birth control Republicans. While they claim to be fighting abortion, it is evident their big prize is outlawing birth control.

So, for those who believe in Biblical teachings, there are two examples in the Bible Republicans use to show God’s disapproval of birth control. Neither stand up to scrutiny.

The first involves Onan, a minor character in the Bible (Genesis 38). Onan’s brother died before conceiving a child. God commanded Onan to produce a child with his dead brother’s widow, Tamar. Onan opts to preserve his financial advantage and interrupts coitus with Tamar, spilling his semen on the ground. For this, God punishes Onan with death.

So, did God punish Onan for having sex with a very ineffective mode of birth control or did He punish Onan for failing to honor a commandment to produce a child with his dead brother’s wife? The Bible doesn’t’t give us an answer. 

For many theologians, since the Bible doesn’t say anything about Tamar giving consent to this whole process, every time Onan had sex with Tamar was a rape. Consequently, this arrangement is a very dubious foundation for any kind of moral argument. 

The second example is that God commanded his people, “Be fruitful and multiply”. However, it is easy to “be fruitful and multiply” while still having protected sex other times. If a couple decides to not have children and they use birth control to achieve their goal, the sin is that they made a decision not to have children, not that they used birth control.

The Catholic Church does approve of abstinence and the rhythm method of birth control (abstaining from sex during the woman’s period of ovulation). Other churches have adopted similar rules. 

Many women have a difficult time understanding why the rhythm method of birth control (which is not effective) is allowed while the types of birth control that are highly effective are a mortal sin. The Catholic reason is that any type of birth control that stops the sperm from fertilizing the woman’s egg is considered “a grave matter”. There is nothing explicit about birth control being sinful in the Bible. Condemnations of birth control are the rules of man, not God. Different Christian churches have dramatically different interpretations of the same Bible.

Superstitions

Another issue is that many Republican Christians are superstitious. These folks believe that the droughts, severe storms, COVID and all the rest we are experiencing have nothing to do with climate change. In their view, these are just God’s punishment because we allow abortions, birth control, empowered women, false religions and homosexuality.

What they fail to realize is that in the first half of the 20th Century, we had polio, the Spanish flu, consecutive years of drought, the Dust Bowl, locusts, boll weevils, the Great Depression,  and two World Wars. During that time frame, abortion was illegal, divorce was illegal, gay sex was illegal, birth control and interracial marriage were illegal in most states and the percent of Americans attending church was at an all time high. In addition, women, homosexuals and coloreds knew their place in society.

While it is fine to long for the good old days, they weren’t great for a lot of people. Especially anyone that weren’t heterosexual, white males.

The bigger picture on Biblical interpretations

Republicans somehow think they are doing the Lord’s work by opposing abortions and birth control. Yet, the Bible makes clear that life begins at first breath. The Bible simply doesn’t make any direct claim that birth control is wrong. Republican Christian arguments rely on ambiguity and guessing what Bible writers meant. Often, church leaders just apply their own interpretations.

Republican Christians make abortion and birth control rules based on ambiguity and conjecture about what is in the Bible. At the same time, on other topics like charity, helping the poor and condemning  greed, they ignore the continual and very direct teachings in the Bible. Some examples:

“He who gives to the poor will never want, but he who shuts his eyes will have many curses.” Proverbs 28:27. 

Do not neglect to show hospitality to strangers, for thereby some have entertained angels unawares. Hebrews 13:2

Certainly, no hidden meaning  in these Biblical quotes. However, applying these lessons to Republican policies like taking food stamps, housing and medical care from the poor while giving tax breaks to the rich doesn’t apply to the buffet style of Christianity Republicans follow.

Las Vegas casino workers should pack-up their fishnets and pushups. Trump endorsed Republican candidate Jacky Eubanks promises to ban contraception, gay marriage and impose a “Christian moral order’ on the nation if she is elected to the Michigan legislature.
Where do we go from here?

As more and more states pass bills mimicking the Texas abortion  bill, women in the affected states will have to travel further for safe abortions. Abortion facilities in sanctuary states will have capacity problems. 

While most Texas women circumvented the law by traveling out of state, the future will definitely involve more medical (drug induced) abortions. Currently, buying the pills online means 5-15 days for the drugs to arrive from India. This is an unacceptably long time when medical abortions should be done within ten weeks of conception. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/05/04/abortion-pills-online-telemedicine/

So here’s a way for an enterprising individual to help women keep control of their bodies while earning a decent living. An entrepreneur could set-up a website like doityourselfabortion.com (the domain is still available at this writing) and create an online shop and presence in Mexico. While both Mifepristone and Misoprostol are sold over-the-counter in Mexico, I‘d recommend focusing on just selling Misoprostol since it is a generic and is also used for stomach ailments. A four pill regimen of Misoprostol is 99 percent effective in aborting a fetus. 

If worst comes to worst, the most our entrepreneur can be charged with is shipping a drug to treat indigestion into the US. If someone is going to use it for an abortion, that is their business. 

I’d also suggest an extra optional box to check on the online order form if the customer wants the pills shipped packed with skin care lotion or some other product. This will work for girls that need the package delivered to their parents’ house and borrowed their parents’ credit card to make the purchase. 

If Frugal Ron was willing to move to a new country, learn a new language, start business from scratch and learn which Mexican politicians to make business partners, I’d do this myself. Unfortunately, at this stage of my life, I’ll leave this opportunity to someone else.

More Republican folly

If Texas Republicans were capable enough to pay attention, they would notice it is one thing to pass a law banning abortions. It is another thing to actually enforce it. 

Some of the Republican efforts are just plain bizarre. Some states are passing laws making it a felony for a woman to travel to another state to get an abortion. They choose to ignore that it is impossible to determine if a woman had an abortion or a natural miscarriage. No medical facility is going to give up private medical records. Maybe these Republicans expect women to put up an Instagram post, “My trip to Illinois to get an abortion”? 

Republican run state legislatures are busy passing laws outlawing the delivery of abortion pills through the mail. These laws are also a waste of time since authorities cannot open mail without a warrant. Getting a warrant is even more difficult for the authorities if the drugs are coming from a country or state where their use and sale is legal. Complicating things more for Republicans, mailing the pills in a plain envelope with no return address would require law enforcement to get a warrant to search every piece of mail coming from India, Mexico or any other country or state that women are getting medical abortions from.

The Catch-22

Polls show 64 percent of US voters do not want to see Roe versus Wade overturned and abortion made illegal the US. Logically, voters should be mobilized and elect enough Democrats to overturn the filibuster in the Senate and send a bill protecting the right to legal abortion to President Biden to make into law. 

I doubt this will happen in the near future. Abortion laws are a Catch 22. As long as abortion laws are as ineffective as the Texas law and women with money can readily get a safe abortion when they want, few voters and politicians are going to make an issue of it. However, if Republicans could ever figure out a way to write an abortion bill that was actually effective, the Silent Majority would rise up and kill it in a flash.

Where we go from here?

The demise of abortion laws will actually happen in courts. It won’t be decided by judges, but by people like you and I. When authorities capture an abortionist, or someone sues someone for aiding an abortion, there will be a jury trial. In the US, one of every four women over 40 has had an abortion. Presumably, one of every four women under 40 will want an abortion sometime in the future. Already, the odds are stacked in the favor of the abortion provider. We need to vote for acquittal if given the opportunity.

I expect after a few unsuccessful cases of individuals suing abortion facilitators, (allowed in Texas’s SB 8), the high legal costs associated with bringing these cases will cool people’s enthusiasm.

District attorneys and attorney generals in Republican states have vowed not to prosecute anyone for being involved in an abortion. https://www.washingtonpost.com/crime-law/2020/10/14/coalition-prosecutors-attorneys-general-across-us-vow-not-enforce-antiabortion-laws/

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opinion/prosecutor-abortion-virginia.html

The Canadian example

In Quebec, Canada, Dr. Henry Morgentaler was charged with providing illegal abortions. Morgentaler admitted to performing over 6,000 abortions and just to show his goodwill to prosecutors, he also gave them a video of himself performing an abortion. Prosecutors charged him three times and juries acquitted him three times. Finally, prosecutors deemed the abortion law unenforceable. The Canadian Supreme Court eventually struck down Canada’s abortion law as unconstitutional.

After striking down Roe this summer, I don’t expect the US Supreme Court to revisit abortion until at least two Republican justices have died.

In the meantime, what I expect will happen in other Republican states is what is happening in Texas now. Today’s Republicans are so gullible they will believe anything they are told to believe. If Fox News and Republican politicians tell them that their abortion laws are saving hundreds of thousands of babies’s lives, they’ll buy it hook-line-and-sinker. At the same time, women wanting an abortion will have easy access for traveling to a sanctuary state or ordering an online abortion. This is about the best we can expect in the next few years.

Wrapping up

Today’s Republican Party and the Republicans on the Supreme Court are living in a world that doesn’t exist anymore. These people think the Supreme Court can make laws outlawing abortion, same sex marriage and contraception and that people will blindly obey them. Then, there is the ridiculous notion that the Republican Party, led by Donald Trump, will make the US a “moral nation”.

The saddest part of all this foolishness of trying to outlaw abortion is that we are wasting time and resources that should be applied in figuring out how to make the most effective means of birth control available to any woman of reproductive age that wants it. The facts from the last 30 years show that without a doubt, free and more available birth control dramatically reduces the number of abortions. Outlawing abortions does virtually nothing to reduce abortions.

The part of this whole argument about abortion that is missing is the gut wrenching decision it forces on women and their families that are confronted with an unwanted pregnancy.

Getting an abortion, or carrying a baby to full-term, is a life changing choice. Abortion is undoubtedly the greatest social issue our country faces. Fortunately, we have the technology and the means to dramatically reduce the need for abortion. We just need the political will to make it happen.


Solving the Illegal Immigration Issue

For Republicans, their most important issue is stopping Brown and Black skinned people from immigrating to the United States. Republicans have tried everything to prevent them from coming. They have used walls, fancy motion detectors, drone aircraft, satellites, huge increases in the number of border patrol personnel and illegally taking children away from their parents. Even a deadly pandemic, that made travel unsafe, didn’t stop the immigration.

It is amazing what migrants go through to come here They are leaving their ancestral homes and their family and friends (who they’ll probably never see again). On the way to the US, they will be robbed, raped, extorted by police and treated like garbage by the traffickers they are paying to bring them here. Many will die. If they get here, they face very uncertain futures. Illegal immigrants are desperate people. 

Donald Trump will forever be the Republican Messiah for his anti-immigrant rhetoric, his $15 billion unfinished wall (the one he pledged Mexico would pay for) and his other steps to stop immigration. Yet, according to the Cato Institute, in a January 20, 2021 release, “President Trump reduced legal immigration. He did not reduce illegal immigration. “Data suggests COVID-19 had far more impact on the reduction of border apprehensions in 2020 than anything Trump did.” (Border apprehensions are used as an indirect measure of the number of people illegally entering the US.)  https://www.cato.org/blog/president-trump-reduced-legal-immigration-he-did-not-reduce-illegal-immigration

It is time to recognize that all the barrier systems the US uses to stop illegal immigration are ineffective. Additional interdiction methods only make the trip more dangerous for migrants. Desperate people react and overcome whatever is thrown at them. 

India is the fourth biggest source of illegal immigration to the US. An estimated 74,000 illegally immigrate to the US annually. Obviously, walls, Border Patrol, motion detectors and all the rest didn’t stop them. The point is, trying to stop desperate people from finding a way into the US is a wasted effort. 

A far better idea is to understand why people are willing to risk everything to come to the US. Then, fix those problems so potential future migrants want to stay in their native countries.

Why people come to the US illegally

Illegal immigration from Mexico wasn’t at the top of the list of problems President Franklin Roosevelt was dealing with in 1941. In Roosevelt’s Four Freedoms Speech, he was addressing the crisis World War II was creating. During it, he articulated two of the reasons that made people 80 years later so willing to leave their homes and risk everything to come to the US.  The four basic freedoms Roosevelt identified are:

  • Freedom from fear
  • Freedom from want
  • Freedom of speech
  • Freedom of worship

Freedom from fear is an over-riding reason people migrate from their Central American, South American and Mexican homes. The fear is the direct result of the US population’s insatiable demand for illegal drugs. The drug money corrupts their governments and the cartel violence sucks everyone into the ever-present violence.

Freedom from want is another major problem. Because of corruption, mostly due to the pervasive influence of drug money, there is little foreign direct investment. Job prospects are bleak and wages are very low because of the lack of job competition. More bluntly, their economies are a mess.

I won’t focus on freedom of worship and speech in this article. They aren’t major reasons for immigration to the US.

How can the US provide basic freedoms to stop illegal migration?

To get at the root causes of why people are so desperate to leave their homes, we need to do two things. 

  • Legalize all drugs now considered illegal.
  • Establish a free trade zone from the Canadian border to the tip of South America. (Include Canada, if they want to be included.)

Legalize all drugs

Freedom from fear means living in a country that has the Rule of Law. This is not the case in countries controlled by drug money.

Hopefully, we have moved beyond blaming the lawlessness south of our border on those countries. US consumers created the drug cartels. US money gave the cartels the ability to control governments, create lawlessness and eliminate the Rule of Law.

To kill the dragon of violence in Mexico, Central and South America, cut off the dragon’s head. Legalizing all drugs in the US will transform life in those countries. Eliminate the drug money and you eliminate the major part of the violence and corruption that drives people to the US.

Legalizing drugs will dramatically improve life south of our border. It will also be a good thing for the US. We need to recognize reality. The War On Drugs has been an abysmal failure. We lock-up a major drug kingpin like El Chapo Guzman and the drug market doesn’t even hiccup. We fill up our jails with street sellers and the drug market just keeps rolling along. Illicit drugs are readily available in both urban and rural communities. When an addict over doses, we see first hand how ineffective the War On Drugs is. In 2015, the Drug Policy Alliance, which advocates for an end to the War on Drugs, estimated that the United States spends $51 billion annually on these initiatives, and in 2021, after 50 years of the drug war, others have estimated that the US has spent a cumulative $1 trillion on it. For all this, police, DEA and all the rest interdict about 10 percent of the illegal drugs.

We have a great deal of hypocrisy in the US about drugs. Certainly, heroin and cocaine are very dangerous and addictive. The same can be said for alcohol. A person that OD’s on alcohol is just as dead as someone that OD’s on heroin. Just for comparison, approximately 95,000 people in the US die from alcohol related causes annually. In 2020, 91,800 people in the US died from drug involved overdoses. This includes deaths from all illicit or prescription opioid drugs.

For marijuana, I can speak from personal experience. Once while visiting Washington State, I tried legal marijuana in a snicker doodle cookie (I would never smoke the stuff). It wasn’t half bad. Yet, this was a few years ago and I haven’t been driven to keep using the stuff.

On a different level, thousands of US GIs came back from Vietnam addicted to heroin. Only a very small percentage couldn’t kick the habit. Germany used to sell Methylphenidate over the counter. During Germany’s 1940 invasion of France in World War II, British and French generals refused to believe how far German troops had advanced. The German Army provided their troops with Meth and they could fight and march for over 48 hours straight. 

I’m not about to downplay the danger of these drugs. However, for people with addictive personalities, they will feed their addictions regardless of barriers thrown up by government – until or unless they decide to kick their addiction. Those us without addictive personalities, representing 85-90 percent of the population, can use and break away from highly addictive drugs like heroin and nicotine. 

Today’s Republicans are all about, “My body, my choice”. It is time for them to cut the hypocrisy and let people make their own decisions about what drugs they want to use. If Republicans want to cut illegal immigration to the US, destroy the drug cartels by legalizing all drugs and give people south of our border freedom from fear.

Drug War impact in the US

While the focus here is on reducing drug cartel violence in other countries, it is important to understand the impact the War on Drugs has had in the US. We’ve filled our jails with Black and Brown skinned people on drug possession and selling charges. We’ve finally started to figure out that it doesn’t do any good to put someone in jail and give them a criminal record for possessing drugs. It is time to take the next big step. DPA_Fact_Sheet_Drug_War_Mass_Incarceration_and_Race_June2015.pdf

Not only our cities, but also rural areas see the impact of drug violence in the US. Decriminalizing drug sales will stop drive by shootings and gang violence rooted in defending drug sale territories. Legalizing drugs in the US will provide freedom from fear for innocent people caught in the mayhem of drug violence here.

Create a free trade zone

Freedom from want means having a good paying job and hope for their futures. If Hispanics and South Americans have good paying jobs and can provide for their families, that eliminates a reason to come to the US. 

By “free trade zone”, I’m not talking about the bureaucratic morass of trade restrictions and protections that is the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). I’m talking about the kind of trade that exists between Arizona and California. 

Besides reducing immigration to the US, this type of agreement allows all countries to focus on producing what they are best at. This increases productivity which typically leads to higher wages in each country. What an enlarged free trade zone won’t do is increase or decrease our trade deficit. Another bonus in these unstable times is a free trade zone close to home reduces our reliance on China.

Donald Trump’s presidency was a disaster. Yet, we can learn a lot from the Trump presidency. Such as, what not to do.

During his time in office, Trump started a trade war. He implemented tariffs, quotas and renegotiated trade agreements. What did all this get us? From the first to the last year of Trump’s term, US trade deficits with other countries were the second biggest in history (second only to George W. Bush’s). 

Trump simply proved (again) what readers on this website already knew. Trade restrictions or openings have no impact on a country’s international trade balance. Each country’s trade balance is dependent on that country’s net national savings. If we want to lower the US’s trade deficits, lower our government spending deficit. 

Wait a minute…

For Republicans, stopping people of color coming into the US along with maintaining White privilege are their two most important issues. But, is reducing illegal immigration equally important to those of us that aren’t racists?

This is a problem. The US has declining birth rates that will impact us in many ways – none of them good.  From keeping Social Security solvent to keeping our economy growing, we need more people.

Growing the economic pie

A frequent misconception Republicans try to spread is that the economy is like a pie. If the population grows, that just means a smaller piece of the pie for everyone. If this was true, when the US population grew after World War II from 140 million to 329.5 million now, we would all be living in caves and barely sustaining ourselves.  That obviously didn’t happen. Yet Republicans have pulled out their fixed sized pie argument and used it against everything from civil rights to today’s immigration.

White people in the South fought the Civil Rights movement tooth and nail.  Poor White people didn’t have much and they weren’t about to share it with Black people. However, as the Civil Rights movement gained steam, a strange thing happened.

Contrary to expectations, there was no economic apocalypse for whites. The economic pie got bigger as blacks moved into the workforce. From 1960 through the mid 1970’s, wages in the southeastern U.S. rose dramatically compared to the rest of the country.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Table SA1-3. Personal income summary” http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=1, “Table SA04. State income and employment summary” http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1&isuri=1&acrdn=1, (accessed 11-08-2012)

The newly hired workers had money to spend. This created more economic activity. Local stores were getting more business, so they expanded and hired more workers. The cumulative effect was an expanding economy that became increasingly upscale in core urban areas.

https://www.frugalron.com/frugal-ron/immigration-and-growing-the-economic-pie/

Summing up

We can dramatically slow illegal immigration to the US by making life better in the countries migrants come from. There are economic downsides for the US in doing this. However, thee can be balanced out with the advantages that a large free trade zone would provide.

It isn’t often that government can do things that are Win-Win for everyone.  Ending the War on Drugs is something that helps everyone. Collect tax money from drug sales and use some of that to fund studies to better understand addiction.

Expanding free trade is another win for everyone. If we can do things to improve the lives for people south of our border, that is a very good thing. And a bonus, having fewer immigrants of color coming to the US may make Republicans less unhappy.

Is this practical in 2022? Probably not. Yet, we need to start talking about these kind of solutions now if we ever hope to implement them someday.