The original intent of this article was to measure Donald Trump’s  effectiveness in fulfilling his campaign promises. After finishing the piece, it was clear that this is an  ineffective way to measure presidential success. One president could fulfill 75% of his campaign promises with none of them improving the lives of voters and a second president could fulfill only one of his 100 campaign promises. However, if that one fulfilled promise enhanced the lives of all citizens, the second presidency would be considered far more successful than the first.

Consequently, this column measures Trump’s effectiveness in keeping campaign promises while also measuring how those accomplishments impact our lives.

The Washington Post identified 282 Trump campaign promises. The following are what Frugal Ron considers some of the most important.

Border wall

“I would build a great wall, and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me, and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great great wall on our southern border and I’ll have Mexico pay for that wall.”

Perhaps Trump’s most famous promise, hasn’t gone very well for him. It is interesting that every congressional representative with a Congressional district touching the US/Mexico border is against building a wall. This hasn’t been lost on the rest of Congress and the Senate.

Mexico definitely is not going to pay for Trump’s wall. Congress, which controls the federal government’s purse strings will also not fund his wall. This leaves Trump with the only option of declaring a National Emergency and using unallocated defense department construction funds to build the wall.

There are a couple of problems with this plan. First, we are not at war with Mexico, so enforcing border integrity is a police function, not a defense department function. This makes using defense department funding for the border a problem.

Second, Trump appointees heading the FBI, the CIA, the NSC and the Defense Department do not categorize the situation at the Mexico/US border as a National Emergency. The bottom line is that Trump can declare his National Emergency, but the declaration will more than likely be held up for years in the courts. Getting by that, the US government will need to use the power of eminent domain to seize much of the private land to build Trump’s wall. This will take even longer.

Trump can declare a National Emergency but he will be long gone from office before it ever gets out of the courts. His successor will simply end the National Emergency. This is a failed campaign promise.

Since the wall has not and will not be built, there is no impact on U.S. citizens.

Balance the federal budget

“It can be done. … It will take place and it will go relatively quickly.  … If you have the right people, like, in the agencies and the various people that do the balancing … you can cut the numbers by two pennies and three pennies and balance a budget quickly and have a stronger and better country.”

“I will eliminate the U.S. debt in eight years!”

Trump’s promise to balance the federal budget has not gone well for him either. Two years into his presidency, federal government net borrowing is $1.042 trillion. This is a 43% increase in federal borrowing since President Barack Obama left office. Evidently, saving two pennies here and three pennies there has not gotten the job done for Trump. This is a failed campaign promise.

Taxes on corporate income were $325,7 billion when Obama left office. Currently, they are $162.7 billion. This contributes to the skewing of incomes in the U.S. with the rich having a larger percentage of wealth and a declining middle class.

Deficit loving liberals love to borrow money like there is no tomorrow and Trump is no exception. Republican Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush all ran up big deficits. Unfortunately, $trillion annual government spending deficits are not sustainable and led to major recessions. The impact on U.S. citizens today from Trump’s deficit is the false prosperity we have at this writing. Judging from experience,  it will also lead to another disastrous economic meltdown.

Cut federal government spending

Trump promised during his presidential campaign to cut federal government spending by 20%.

When Obama left office, total US government expenditures were $4.263 trillion. At the end of the third quarter of 2018, they were $4.608 trillion, an increase of $345 billion This is a failed campaign promise.

Trump’s racist supporters never cease to see a glimmer of gold in all this red. As a number of Wisconsin dairy producers have told Frugal Ron’s associate, “At least Trump isn’t giving all the money to niggers like Hillary would have.” Unfortunately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Frugal Ron’s main source of economic data, does not have a line item for “Money given to niggers”, so it is impossible to verify their claim.

Regardless of how this money is spent, Trump is showing his true socialist colors by using government money to buy prosperity. Many other socialist world leaders have tried to use massive increases in government spending to buy long-term prosperity and it has never worked.

Lower the trade deficit

Trump promised “brilliant trade” policies that would drop the national trade deficit “like you’ve never seen before.”

Two years into Trump’s presidency, the US trade balance (that includes goods, services, interest, dividends, wages and all other kinds of transactions) stands at -$527.6 billion. This is a 15% increase from the trade deficit at the end of Obama’s term. This is a failed campaign promise.

Trump and his lackeys tell farmers and other exporters that today’s tariffs are just short-term pain that will be well worth the long-term gain. There are no facts to back up this claim.

Today’s $527.6 billion annual trade deficit has absolutely nothing to do with unfair trade deals signed by previous U.S. presidents.  This is simply anther Trump lie that shows his complete lack of understanding of how international trade works.

A country’s international trade balance has nothing to do with trade agreements. It has everything to do with net national savings. Economists use the equation: (Government revenues – Government spending) + (Private income – Private spending) = (Exports – Imports).

Our huge government deficit overwhelms our private savings and consequently, we have huge trade deficits. If Trump could get his act together and lower our federal government spending deficit by $528 billion, all other things staying constant, we will have a trade surplus.

Our net national savings deficit impacts our markets dramatically. Currency markets change the value of the dollar relative to other currencies and this changes a country’s Terms of Trade until our trade balance equals our net national savings.

In more practical terms, U.S. dairy products are more expensive to Chinese buyers because of our savings deficit. This gives the Chinese a price incentive to buy their cheese and such from the European Union, New Zealand and Australia and not the U.S. Lower international demand for U.S. dairy products lowers domestic prices. Add in the impacts of tariffs and one starts to understand the real causes for the pain U.S agriculture is experiencing.

The savings deficit also impacts domestic manufacturers that produce just for the U.S. market. While our exports are more expensive to foreigners, their imports are cheaper here.

The flip side of our $528 billion trade deficit is that the US has an annual international savings deficit of $528 billion. In other words, our country is going in hock to the rest of the world for $528 annually.

All the grandstanding about trade agreements is just that. We are losing countless jobs to foreign companies and putting our agricultural producers through a world of hurt while the blowhard Trump attacks our trade partners and refuses to touch the real cause of our trade deficits, a $trillion federal budget deficit.

Family Maternity Leave and Universal Day Care

“Child care is such a big problem. We’re going to solve that problem. That means we need working mothers to be fairly compensated for their work and ensure they have affordable quality child care for their kids.”

“We can provide six weeks of paid maternity leave to any mother with a newborn child whose employer does not provide the benefit.”

Yeah, right.

These are failed campaign promises.

Appoint Supreme Court justices that will overturn Roe versus Wade and make abortion illegal

“If we put another two or perhaps three justices on, that will happen. And that will happen automatically, in my opinion, because I am putting pro-life justices on the court.”

Trump has kept his promise by putting two anti-abortion justices on the Supreme Court. Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s continued longevity has so far frustrated his plans for appointing a third justice. Since Republicans control the Senate, they have also appointed a number of like minded judges to lifelong terms on the federal judiciary. This is a fulfilled campaign promise.

Whether or not three other justices will vote to overturn Roe versus Wade is another question. The last thing our country needs is another unenforceable law.

Liberals have a pollyannish belief in the power of big government. In this fantasy land, all we need to do is enact a law outlawing abortion and young women will stop having sex except for procreation. Passing a law to stop people from consuming alcoholic beverages didn’t work with Prohibition. Passing laws prohibiting people from using illicit drugs isn’t working and passing a law making abortion illegal  sure won’t stop women from getting abortions.

Women with money (translated, white women), will travel to get a safe abortion. This is already happening. There are no abortion clinics in North or South Dakota. Is anyone so foolish that they believe women in those two states no longer get abortions? Not hardly. So many out-of-state women are getting abortions in Minnesota that they have a separate group for them in their records.

Even if the Supreme Court makes abortion illegal throughout the U.S., women with money will just travel further. There are some other un-intended consequences of anti-abortion laws:

• With white women still able to get abortions, the law’s primary impact will fall on poor women (translated, women of color). The result could very well be many more black and brown babies and very few white ones. Since most Trump supporters are racists, this is not a good thing for them.
• Abortion is illegal throughout Latin America, which includes Central America, South America and the Caribbean. This hasn’t lowered their rate of abortions compared to the U.S. According to the Guttmacher Institute, the the annual rate of abortion in Latin America is estimated at 44 per 1,000 women of reproductive age (15–44). The abortion rate in the U.S. is 14.6 abortions per 1,000 women of childbearing age (ages 15-44).  The lower abortion rate in the U.S. is attributed to contraceptive availability and sex education.
• A high percentage of abortions are non-invasive, drug induced. People have a way of circumventing foolish laws. In South America, there is a robust black market in abortion drugs. Make abortion illegal in the U.S. and the result could very well be safe, effective, low-cost and completely free of government involvement.
• Any abortion law would only to apply to the poorest and most vulnerable women. This is unfair and unfair laws divide our country even more than it is now.
• The last thing we need is another law rammed down the majority’s throats.

The number of U.S. abortions reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention fell by two percent year over year and by 24 percent over the span of the  decade ending in 2015, the latest year data is available for. If we really want to lower  the number of abortions, the best solution is to step-up the programs that have been so successful in the past. Real solutions include making the relatively new Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives, that are much more effective, more available; along with more effective and universal sex education at younger ages.

Defund Planned Parenthood

“I would defund it because of the abortion factor, which they say is 3 percent. I don’t know what percentage it is. They say it’s 3 percent. But I would defund it, because I’m pro-life.”

A March, 2018, NBC and Wall Street Journal poll found Planned Parenthood is the U.S.’s most popular political institution or figure. It beat out the FBI, the Me Too Movement and Robert Mueller.

Trump failed repeatedly with a Republican controlled House and Senate to defund Planned Parenthood. Defunding isn’t going to happen with a Democratic controlled House.

A lesson for future presidents: Don’t take on an organization that has close to double your approval rating. This is a failed campaign promise.

Repeal the Affordable Health Care Act

“Real change begins with immediately repealing and replacing the disaster known as Obamacare.”

“We’re going to have insurance for everybody. There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us.”

Trump was unable to repeal or replace Obamacare. He has, however, managed to cut some parts of the legislation.

According to a Fox News poll conducted in October, 2018, the Affordable Care Act has its highest popularity ever with 53% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of it and 42% an unfavorable opinion. The same poll found only 37% of registered voters approve of Trump’s handling of health care and 55% disapproving.

As far as providing health insurance for everybody, four million fewer people had health insurance in 2018 compared to 2016. Both of Trump’s health care campaign promises are failed campaign promises.

Restore manufacturing

My plan includes a pledge to restore manufacturing in the United States.”

In the 25 months of Trump’s presidency, there has been a net gain of 373,000 manufacturing jobs. This is a 1.4% annual gain. this is just slightly above the 0.5% annual gain in the last 25 months of Obama’s term. While certainly not a transformational change, he never said how many jobs he would restore in his campaign pledge. At this point in time,  this is a fulfilled campaign promise.

End the Iran nuclear deal

“This deal if I win will be a totally different deal. This will be a totally different deal.”

The goal of the Iran Nuclear Deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for 15 years while integrating Iran into the global economy. Iran was following all the conditions in the agreement, including allowing inspections when Trump decided the agreement had to be renegotiated.

Iran refused to accommodate changes in the original deal between Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and the European Union. While Trump’s Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, National Security Council and the Joint Chiefs of Staffs of all the military branches advised Trump to keep the treaty, he pulled the U.S. out of the agreement. Trump also slapped economic sanctions on Iran with the goal of reducing Iranian oil exports to zero.

According to Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats in February, 2019,, “While we do not believe Iran is currently undertaking the key activities we judge necessary to produce a nuclear device, Iranian officials have publicly threatened to push the boundaries of JCPOA restrictions if Iran does not gain the tangible financial benefits it expected from the deal,”

The “tangible financial benefits” Coats referenced are benefits Iran was promised by US participation in the agreement. By blocking US trade with Iran and trying to enforce a trade embargo on Iran, Trump is risking Iran’s pushing the boundaries of the nuclear treaty.

Trump’s bluster about “fire and fury” towards North Korea caused them to make 20 years of progress in missile and nuclear weapons development in one year. Trump’s belligerent actions towards Iran may mean two new countries will join the nuclear club during his watch. When the U.S. once again has a real president, fixing this mess will be one of his or her biggest challenges.

The bottom line on this campaign promise depends on what you call a “different deal”. If “no deal” qualifies as a “different deal” to you, then this campaign promise was fulfilled.

Restore American prestige globally

Trump invented the idea that the U.S. had lost global prestige during the Obama Administration. In fact Obama was one of the most respected presidents internationally in our history. The Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Accord were results of the respect and influence he had. For good measure, he received the Nobel Peace Prize.

Conversely, Donald Trump is the consummate international laughing-stock. During one of his speeches at the United Nations, the audience and delegates openly laughed as Trump was repeating his standard lies about his accomplishments. During Trump’s state visit to England, protesters had a giant 20 foot high Baby Trump balloon (complete with diaper).

Respect and disrespect are both earned. No previous U.S. president has ever deserved and received this level of disrespect.This is a failed campaign promise.

Drain the swamp

Trump continually promised during his campaign to “drain the Washington swamp”. Unfortunately, what he has created is more like a giant septic tank.

There are $8,000 custom dining room sets for Trump’s HUD secretary as well as the plethora of extravagant plane trips and other trappings of power former EPA head Scott Pruitt indulged. Then, there are  former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s possible criminal misdeeds. Even more disgusting are the industry lobbyists hired to oversee the people who used to pay them.

But, the deepest, rankest part of the septic tank is Donald Trump himself. Maintaining control of his business interests while foreign interests and domestic lobbyists patronize his hotels is the reason a Democratic controlled House is finally investigating Trump’s violations of the Emolument Clause. Then there are the 6,420 lies Trump told in his first 649 days in office.

Hanging over everything is the question of how many laws Trump has broken. The answer will come when the Mueller investigation results are released and when all the House investigations end. This is a failed campaign promise.

End bureaucratic regulations

During the Jimmy Carter Administration, ending bureaucratic regulations meant improving all of our lives. He passed bills that deregulated the trucking industry and brought capitalistic competition to a dormant industry. He also passed an airline deregulation bill that made air travel affordable and available for millions more people.

When Trump brags about ending environmental regulations, his victories are society’s greatest defeats. While Trump and his minions say more research is needed about climate change and its causes, they continually ignore the new research that is published finding that global warming is accelerating, oceans are rising faster than predicted, glaciers are melting at even more alarming rates and that cataclysmic weather events are happening more often.

On another front, federal safety regulations were not enacted in a vacuum. As Trump’s former oil industry lobbyist and now Coast Guard safety regulator eliminates ocean drilling regulations enacted after the Deepwater Horizon disaster, we all lose.

Closer to Frugal Ron’s home is Ashley Furniture in Arcadia, Wisconsin which is a graphic example of why OSHA is needed. The following is from an OSHA press release:

“In a three-and-a-half year period, 4,500 employees at Ashley Furniture Industries Inc., in Arcadia, experienced more than 1,000 work-related injuries. One worker became another terrible statistic when he lost three fingers in July 2014 while operating a dangerous woodworking machine without required safety mechanisms in place. Of the injuries recorded, more than 100 were caused by similar machinery.”

“After the incident, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration conducted an inspection of the facility. Investigators identified 12 willful, 12 repeated and 14 serious safety violations at Ashley Furniture’s Arcadia location, carrying a total of $1,766,000 in penalties. The company has also been placed in the Severe Violator Enforcement Program for failure to address these safety hazards. OSHA previously cited the Arcadia facility in 2014 after an employee suffered a partial finger amputation.”

“Ashley Furniture has created a culture that values production and profit over worker safety, and employees are paying the price,” said U.S. Secretary of Labor Thomas E. Perez. “Safety and profits are not an ‘either, or’ proposition. Successful companies across this nation have both.”

https://www.osha.gov/news/newsreleases/region5/02022015

Ashley Furniture also paid OSHA a $1.2 million fine in 2014. The company has paid a total of $3,598,460 in worker safety violation fines. Companies like Ashley Furniture are why it is imperative to keep OSHA regulations in place.

Trump obviously has no qualms about jeopardizing worker safety or are futures in his quest to say he has eliminated government regulations. This is a campaign promise Trump fulfilled.

Summing-up

Donald Trump has not delivered on more of his campaign promises than any other president. Legislatively, there has probably not been a president whose party controlled both the House and Senate that has accomplished less.

When one party controls the presidency and the Senate, it is a slam dunk that unless judicial nominees are obscenely unqualified, they will be approved. When Republicans control Congress and the presidency, there will always be a huge tax cut for rich people and massive spending increases. Other than that, Trump’s legislative accomplishments are signing a farm bill, a bill to clean garbage out of the oceans and a prison reform bill (that he deserves a great deal of credit for getting passed). If he got that little accomplished with Republicans controlling Congress, don’t expect much for the remainder of his time in office.

However, the bigger issue is the harm Trump has done to this country in his two years in office. For true conservatives, his huge spending increases, his unsustainable deficits and his job destroying trade deficits are mind numbing. He has concentrated more wealth in fewer hands than ever before in this country. Economic policies can be fixed, one only wishes the same for his environmental policies. Real experts agree that the longer we ignore climate change, the more painful our final solutions and problems will be.

What good has Trump done? His record of failure is a testament to the failure of socialistic big spending and big government policies.

 

Sources

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, Quarter 3, 2018; Table 3.2, Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures, Line 49, Net Lending or Net Borrowing. February, 2019.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, Quarter 3, 2018; Table 3.2, Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures, Line 43, Total expenditures. February, 2019.

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, Quarter 3, 2018: Table 4.1. Foreign Transactions in the National Income and Product Accounts, Line 33, Balance On Current Account, NIPA’s. February, 2019.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Interactive data, Employment Hours and Earnings, Current Employment Statistics, All Manufacturing Jobs, Not seasonally adjusted. February, 2019.