Tag Archives: Trump

Inflation!

Voters rate inflation as the most important issue in the United States today. In this article, Frugal Ron will try and explain what inflation is, how we got to where we are today, how to fix it and most important too many people, can we blame Joe Biden for all of it?

One definition of inflation is that it is a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money. The definition Frugal Ron likes to use is “too much money chasing too few goods and services”. In other words, inflation is caused by an imbalance of too much demand and too little supply. 

We’re going to look at each side of the equation separately. First, why is there too much money in our economy? Republicans like to blame Democrats for passing the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan and blame our problems on that single spending item.

Federal Government Expenditures and Savings ($ trillion)
2020 2021 2022 Quarter 1
Total federal govt. expenditures 6.920 7.197 5.600
Total federal govt. savings -3.217 -2.937 -1.042
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Table 3.2 Federal GovernmentCurrent Receipts and Expenditures https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey    

The difference between 2020 and 2021 spending (the last year of the Trump Administration and the first year of the Biden Administration) was 4 percent. The 2022 value includes the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. This 4 percent spending increase  certainly isn’t inflationary compared to the spending increases of  Republican presidents from Ronald Reagan on.

Table 1. Spending by President
Annual Federal Govt. Spending (billions)
President Year before taking office Last year in office Percent Change Annual percent change*
Ronald Reagan – Rep. 1981-1988 $645.0 $1,171.1 82% 8%
George H.W. Bush – Rep. 1989-1992 $1,171.1 $1,524.8 30% 7%
Bill Clinton – Dem. 1993-2000 $1,524.8 $1,943.6 27% 3%
George W. Bush – Rep. 2001-2008 $1,943.6 $3,383.1 86% 7%
Barack Obama – Dem. 2009-2016 $3,383.1 $4,200.4 24% 3%
Donald Trump – Rep. 2017-2020 $4,200.4 $6,932.9 65% 14%
* Calculated by averaging percent spending change of each year in office.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Table 3.2 Federal Govt. Current Receipts and Expenditures; Line 43.

Note: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) calculates totals on a calendar year basis (January 1 to December 31). Quarterly data is annualized. That means that if the first quarter data continued throughout the year exactly the same, this would be the annual value. The data is also seasonally adjusted. This means we can make apples to apples comparisons when we compare 2020 and 2021 annual totals to 2022 quarterly totals.

The falling deficits in 2021 and the dramatic drop in 2022 spending and deficits are because of the impact of COVID vaccinations resulting in people emerging from their economic hibernation. Tax receipts increased and social service costs decreased as people went back to work and started spending more. The American Rescue Plan certainly was part of this recovery by putting money in the hands of people most likely to spend it.

Biden can justifiably take credit (especially considering the mess he inherited from Trump) for the Herculean task of rolling out COVID vaccines and boosters to everyone that wanted them. We spent a year watching Trump refuse to take COVID seriously.  Rather than take the kind of steps to contain the disease that worked so successfully for east Asian and Oceania countries, Trump spent his time blaming  Democrats and the media for reporting the number of COVID deaths,

Relatively small steps. like Biden’s invoking the Defense Production Act so that front line health care workers finally got enough Personal Protective Equipment made a major psychological difference. Finally getting a relatively healthy population led to a healthy economy. This is directly responsible for today’s lower government spending and deficits, compared to when Trump left office.

While Biden deserves credit for what he did, he deserves blame for what he didn’t do.. Every president’s first year income and expenditures are a carryover from the previous presidency.  Budgets are passed every two years. Consequently, Biden had to deal with the last year of a budget passed and signed by Trump.

If we look at recent history (and the above table on presidential  sending and the table below on deficits), the Regan/Bush I Administration brought us record deficits and spending increases and ended in a recession. Bill Clinton came in office, passed a tax increase, balanced the budget and we had unprecedented economic growth. Bush II took office and immediately set new records for spending and borrowing. He left the country with the worst recession since the Great Depression. Barack Obama came into of-ice and inherited record deficits from the Bush II recession. He did cut the increase in spending but floundered until his second term when he passed a tax increased that dropped the deficit by half. Unemployment plummeted and his economic boom lasted into the Trump presidency. Donald Trump came into office and set all new borrowing and deficit records. Not surprisingly, he left the country in an even worse recession than Bush II’s.

If you want to blame Joe Biden for today’s inflation, forget the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. A far more logical cause for our present inflation is the $2.9 trillion deficit we had in 2021. Even the first quarter 2022 deficit of over $1 trillion is unacceptable. Biden had the opportunity, with Democratic majorities in Congress, to pass a balanced budget and put the economy on a strong foundation. He missed that opportunity. Wiping out Trump’s  deficit causing tax cuts and raising tax rates on high income people would have maintained our present growth with much less inflation.

In summary, Biden’s spending did not cause today’s inflation. However, if he had immediately passed a tax increase to wipe out the unacceptable deficits he inherited from Trump’s budget that stretched into Biden’s term, he could have lowered inflation.

Table 2. Net Savings by President
Net Savings (billions)
President First Year in Office Last year In Office Average
Ronald Reagan – Rep. 1981-1988 -$104.3 -$201.0 -$210.5
George H.W. Bush – Rep. 1989-1992 -$194.3 -$359.2 -$269.5
Bill Clinton – Dem. 1993-2000 -$328.7 +$152.9 -$108.3
George W. Bush – Rep. 2001-2008 +$1.50 -$774.2 -$382.3
Barack Obama – Dem. 2009-2016 -$1,475.3 -$717.0 -$1,026.8
Donald Trump – Rep. 2017-2020 -$540.0 -$3,251.6 -$1,482.4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 3.2 Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures; Line 49.
Where the money came from…

IfJoe Biden’s spending didn’t cause today’s inflation, what did? Private savings is a big part of the answer.

Frugal Ron actually predicted today’s inflation. Only problem was  he was four years early with his prediction. Yes, timing is everything.

When Trump came into office, Frugal Ron predicted his out-of-control spending and deficits would result in high inflation. What wasn’t expected was that almost 93 percent of Trump’s increased deficit (compared to Obama’s last year in office) didn’t get spent.

While Trump was breaking every non-recession deficit spending record in history, corporations used their windfall to puff-up their balance sheets and rich people invested their tax cuts in stocks and bonds and other savings instruments. This didn’t do anything to help the economy but it also didn’t trigger any inflation.

Back to the present, when I wrote earlier in this article about the imbalance of too much money chasing too few goods, the too much money didn’t come from the slight increase in federal government spending. It did come from people and companies lowering their annual  savings.

Near term savings peaked in the second quarter of 2020 as corporations stockpiled the money they made from Trump’s corporate tax cuts. In the first quarter of 2021, savings stayed high. As the COVID-19 vaccine became available and our lives normalized, individuals and companies went on a wild spending spree driven by pent-up demand. Again, this spending wasn’t fueled by $277 billion in extra government spending, it was fueled by an almost $3 trillion  drop in annual private savings.

Net Private Savings US ($ trillions)
2020 Quarter 2 2021 Quarter 1 2022 Qtr 1
Net private savings 5.077 4.828 1.973
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 5.1 Savings and investmenthttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

It is important to remember, these savings are annual not cumulative. People have cut the amount they were saving. They have not dipped into the large amount they previously saved. These savings numbers could go negative and have the potential to fuel more inflation.

Where the money went…

COVID essentially shut down much of the US economy in 2020. People weren’t buying as they accumulated savings and without demand, it became an easy decision to shut non-essential manufacturing plants while workers were afraid to show up.

While much has been made of shipping boondoggles and overseas supply problems, imports exploded by 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2019.. These 2022 import levels have never been seen before in the US.

US Imports ($ trillions)

2019 Qtr 4

2022 Qtr 1

Percent change

Imports

3.041

3.910

29%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table 4.1 Foreign Transactions, https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

At the same time, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US rose only marginally. Especially, when adjusted for inflation (GDP – Chained).

Gross Domestic Product – US ($ trillions) 2019 Qtr 4 2022 Qtr 1
GDP 21.7 24.4 12%
GDP – Chained 19.2 19.7 2%
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Table 1.1.6 Real Gross Domestic Product, Chaind Dollars https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey
Catching our breath…

There is a lot going on here and a lot more to cover. I’ve tried to summarize the impacts of fiscal policy. That is government spending. The lowering of annual private savings has far more impact on our inflation.

Even more important when we talk about controlling inflation is monetary policy. This is the Federal Reserve’s domain. And, then there are areas completely immune from fiscal and monetary policy that have huge impacts on inflation, like energy and food.

Before going there, I want to talk about imports. Typically, we look at high levels of imports as being a bad thing. This is not necessarily the case when we have a full employment economy, This is what we have now in the US. The unemployment rate is 3.5 percent and we still added 390,000 new jobs in May.  In this environment, imports resemble a relief valve on a pressure cooker. 

At the start of this article, I defined inflation as too much money chasing too few goods and services. As consumers and businesses lowered their savings in 2021 and into 2022, the too much money would have caused far higher inflation without our record imports.

Things could have been better. Another Joe Biden failing was not immediately reversing Trump’s tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and other goods. These tariffs increased costs for US consumers and are another cause for price inflation in the US.

Example: If a manufacturer has the price of their raw materials increased by 30 percent because of Trump’s tariffs, that increases the cost of production by that much. If the manufacturer has a 40 percent margin built into their price, the 30 percent tariff is now reflected in a 42 percent cost increase to the next level of the retail chain. If there is another step before the consumer and that step also has a 40 percent margin, the cost increase to the final US consumer is almost 59 percent because of Trump’s 30 percent tariff.

Trump put these tariffs in place to reduce US trade deficits. These tariffs along with all the other trade agreement renegotiations didn’t work. Even with all these in place, we currently have record trade deficits. Republicans can’t blame this on Biden. He hasn’t changed the trade policies he inherited from Trump.

As always, a nation’s trade balance is defined by: Exports –  Imports = Private savings +  Government savings. If  the US wants to lower its trade deficit, it should have a balanced federal budget and make government savings equal zero. Better yet, have a government surplus.

But, getting back to inflation, eliminating Trump’s trade barriers will lower inflation.

How US inflation ranks globally

Inflation is a global problem. While I don’t want to minimize the impact of inflation in the United States, many countries are far worse off than us. In fact, compared to other industrialized countries, the US is about middle of the road in controlling inflation.

Also, countries like China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada that followed the COVID containment advice Donald Trump spurned had much less devastating death and economic losses than the US. It isn’t a coincidence that these countries are less impacted by inflation than the US.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/15/in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world-inflation-is-high-and-getting-higher/

If current inflation is related to the severity of a country’s COVID losses, Bidden prevented much more serious inflation in the US by aggressively providing COVID vaccinations to all that wanted them.

Monetary policy and the Federal Reserve Board

The Federal Reserve Bank, overseen by the Federal Reserve Board, is the chief government instrument for keeping inflation in check. They try and do this, with varying levels of effectiveness, by attempting to control the nation’s money supply and interest rates. 

Typically, the Fed required banks to keep 10 percent of their deposits in reserve. If a local bank wanted to make a $10 million loan and they had $1 million of extra money in reserve, the bank could make the loan and the Federal Reserve Bank would loan the local bank the extra $9 million. This is how the Fed increased the money supply. 

The Federal Reserve Bank would dictate the interest rate that the local bank would pay the Fed. More businesses would obviously borrow money at two percent interest than if the interest rate was six percent. With low interest rates, the money in our economy grows faster. Going back to my original definition of inflation, too much money chasing too few goods, one can see how the Fed has the ability to create inflation by creating too much money.

At the end of 2018, Trump’s bubble economy was starting to fizzle out. Trump was browbeating the Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell, who Trump appointed, to lower interest rates.  For whatever reason, the Fed started dramatically lowering interest rates close to zero. Businesses and individuals borrowed more money, the Fed created much more money and Trump’s bubble economy kept going.

It became clear in March of 2020 that the dysfunctional Trump was incapable of minimizing COVID-19’s destruction. The US economy was crashing and the Fed had all but exhausted it ’s chief tool for reviving the economy.  Interest rates were already close to zero. 

The Fed did lower interest rates it charged banks to zero. To get more money into the economy, they also lowered banks’ reserve requirements to zero. Desperate to increase the nation’s money supply, the Fed started Quantitative Easing, the buying of private securities. They also instituted a number of other policies to buoy the economy.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/#:~:text=Easing%20Monetary%20Policy,of%200%25%20to%200.25%25.

All of this is going on while Trump is running up record government spending deficits.  As COVID is coming under control, consumers and businesses are dramatically cutting their annual savings on a wild spending spree. 

Hindsight is always perfect. It is easy to say the Fed should have pulled in the reins of money supply earlier, but no one has perfect real time information. The Fed reversed their Qualitative Easing and most importantly, has started raising interest rates. Currently, interest rates for borrowers are between 4.5 and 5 percent. That is in the historical interest rate range.

Raising interest rates is certainly not a universal cure for high inflation. Interest rates are a production cost for businesses and increases get reflected in higher costs to consumers. But to emphasize, the FederalReserve Bank is the best tool we have for bringing inflation under control in today’s political environment.

Immune from fiscal and monetary policy

Energy is a major cause of our current inflation that is immune to our best efforts to contain. Republicans love to blame high gasoline prices on President Biden. However, gas prices were rising before Biden took office. 

Obviously, a big reason for high energy prices is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent boycotts of Russian oil and gas. While the boycotts are noble, the result is that Russia is selling a smaller amount of product for a lot more money per unit and consequently is making more money off energy than before their invasion. A the same time, countries boycotting Russian energy are dealing with high inflation. International leaders are working to fix this.

One more of the Trump disasters that has contributed to our inflation is his killing the Iranian Nuclear Agreement. President Barack Obama put together this historic agreement that stopped Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. Perhaps more important, the agreement integrated Iran into the world economy. After Trump pulled the US out of the deal, Iran won’t deal with us. They have no incentive to increase oil production because of sanctions we installed on what they can buy. And, they are very close to having a nuclear weapon. Trump’s blunder gave us one less oil trading partner and one more hostile nation close to being a nuclear power.

Climate change and the need to wean from fossil fuels is our world’s most pressing issue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown us that the US has no real energy policy. The high gas prices we have don’t seem to alter people’s driving habits.

A number of solar projects have been cancelled or indefinitely postponed because of Trump’s tariffs on foreign produced solar panels. Biden finally eased them, but still hasn’t removed them. That is a mistake.

People don’t like major power line projects and they don’t want huge solar or wind farms in their backyards. The best long term solution is to de-regulate power companies and turn innovation loose. Small scale projects, perhaps co-ops, that produce electricity and sell their excess at retail prices without interference from established power companies are the future. 

Since both Russia and Ukraine were major grain exporters, the war and trade embargoes raised international and domestic food prices. Ukraine was also a major fertilizer exporter. Increases in US fertilizer and fuel prices raise the cost of production for US farmers. Cost of production increases are passed onto consumers. Like energy prices, food prices are immune to both fiscal and monetary management.

Consequences of inflation

This year, the federal government will spend $413 billion on interest payments on the national debt of $28 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. https://www.thebalance.com/interest-on-the-national-debt-4119024

The average interest rate paid on this debt is 1.4 percent. With some simple multiplication, one can see the impact a four fold increase in interest rates would have on the federal budget. 

Another problem with inflation is the impact on bondholders. For easy figuring, let’s assume a major Chinese bank has a one year $ 1 billion treasury bond paying 2 percent interest at the end of the term. Let’s also assume the US has an 8 percent annual inflation rate. At the end of the term, the Treasury Department pays the Chinese bank $1.02 billion. However, because of inflation and the 8 percent drop in the value of the dollar, the real value (or buying power) of the $1.02 billion is actually only $938.4 million. The Chinese won’t make that mistake again.

The consequences of inflation on our national debt are significant and also significant for the ability to sell treasury bonds when inflation is high. This is where the doomsday scenario of a government default gets repeated. This is probably overblown. Trump made us immune to $multi-trillion deficits.

The major consequences of inflation falls on us. Inflation does not hit everyone equally. If you are a renter in an already tight market, you are really screwed. Annual rent renewals in some cities are up 40 to 50 percent. Low income people are the ones who usually suffer most.

Wrapping-up

The main causes of today’s  inflation in the US are the large deficits in the 2021 federal budget Biden inherited from Trump, the unprecedented reduction in private savings in 2021, an overzealous  Federal Reserve that should have put the brakes on monetary growth sooner and the war in Ukraine.

For those that are looking to blame Joe Biden, there are plenty of opportunities. Biden’s sending is not a significant cause of today’s inflation. When blaming Biden, focus on what he didn’t do; balance the federal budget and eliminate Trump’s trade restrictions.

The most important part of this article is, what can be done to rein in price increases?

  • The Federal Reserve will do most of the work containing price increases by raising interest rates. Inflation is as much psychological as fact driven. When consumers start thinking  they don’t need a new car (or any other purchase) now, but are going to buy it because they expect it will be much more expensive next year, we have a problem. It is the Fed’s job to make this kind of speculation expensive with higher borrowing costs. The trick is to do this without setting off a recession.
  • The opportunity to control inflation with fiscal (government spending and taxes) management passed. If Republicans win the House and/or the Senate this November, we will need to wait until the Democrats control the presidency and both Houses of Congress again for any fiscal reform, like balancing the budget. Today’s Republicans aren’t a serious political party. The only solution they offer to stop inflation is to reinstall Donald Trump as president. Considering Trump’s history of breaking every deficit and percent spending increase record in existence, he would be the worst possible inflation cure imaginable. In our dysfunctional political system, Republicans will do everything possible to prolong inflation through the 2024 presidential election. “Party over country” is their motto.
  • Biden could help lower inflation by reversing all of Trump’s tariffs and trade restrictions. He can do this without Congress. If he renegotiates major trade agreements like the revised NAFTA (now the USMCA), he needs Congressional approval.
  • Deregulating the electricity industry is probably another fantasy unless Democrats hold the presidency and both houses of Congress. If deregulating electricity brought about even a fraction of the innovation deregulating the phone industry brought, we would be well on our way to controlling energy costs with clean electricity production.

What I am not suggesting to lower inflation is capitulating to Russia and forcing Ukraine into subservience or ending the country’s existence. Russia needs to be punished even after hostilities end. Eliminating trade restrictions on Russia should only be considered after Vladimir Putin dies or is removed from power.

Many things are worse than inflation. Appeasement of a bullying dictator with illusions of empire is one of those things. If we want to combat inflation, far more effective is voters maintaining Democratic majorities in Congress and voting for a strong Democratic president in 2024.


The War On Christianity

Is Christianity under attack? Donald Trump’s Attorney General, William Barr stated in a recent speech that Catholicism and other mainstream religions are the target of “organized destruction” by “secularists and their allies among progressives who have marshaled all the force of mass communications, popular culture, the entertainment industry and academia”.

We can probably assume secularists and progressives are other names for Democrats. So, is Christianity the target of organized destruction? Is there a War Against Christianity?

What the data says…

Again not sure about organized destruction by secularists or a War On Christianity, but clearly things are not going well for Christian churches. According to a Pew Research Center Survey conducted in 2018 and 2019, https://www.pewforum.org/2019/10/17/in-u-s-decline-of-christianity-continues-at-rapid-pace/

“When asked about their religion, 65% of American adults describe themselves as Christians, down 12 percentage points over the past decade. Meanwhile, the religiously unaffiliated share of the population, consisting of people who describe their religious identity as atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular,” now stands at 26%, up from 17% in 2009.”

“The data shows that just like rates of religious affiliation, rates of religious attendance are declining. Over the last decade, the share of Americans who say they attend religious services at least once or twice a month dropped by 7 percentage points, while the share who say they attend religious services less often (if at all) has risen by the same degree. In 2009, regular worship attenders (those who attend religious services at least once or twice a month) outnumbered those who attend services only occasionally or not at all by a 52%-to-47% margin. Today those figures are reversed; more Americans now say they attend religious services a few times a year or less (54%) than say they attend at least monthly (45%).”

As for the future, things look even worse for Christian churches. “Furthermore, the data shows a wide gap between older Americans (Baby Boomers and members of the Silent Generation) and Millennials in their levels of religious affiliation and attendance. More than eight-in-ten members of the Silent Generation (those born between 1928 and 1945) describe themselves as Christians (84%), as do three-quarters of Baby Boomers – 1948-1964 (76%). In stark contrast, only half of Millennials – 1981-1996 (49%) describe themselves as Christians; four-in-ten are religious “Nones,” and one-in-ten Millennials identify with non-Christian faiths.”

Between the previous Pew survey done ten years ago and the current survey, Millennials who identified as Christians dropped by 16 percentage points, from 65% to the current 49%.

For those who think these young people will come back to Christianity later in life, the Pew research has sobering news, “The survey finds that religious change begins early in life. Most of those who decided to leave their childhood faith say they did so before reaching age 24, and a large majority say they joined their current religion before reaching age 36. Very few report changing religions after reaching age 50.” (The Pew researchers consider “Unaffiliated” a religion.)

The 2010 Pew Survey contained a large number of in-depth interviews to try and understand the dynamics behind these changes.

According to Pew Research Center’s 2011 publication, “Faith in Flux” https://www.pewforum.org/2009/04/27/faith-in-flux/

“One-in-ten American adults is a former Catholic. Former Catholics are about evenly divided between those who have become unaffiliated and those who have become Protestant, with a smaller number leaving Catholicism for other faiths. In response to the yes-or-no questions about why they left the Catholic Church, nearly six-in-ten former Catholics who are now unaffiliated say they left Catholicism due to dissatisfaction with Catholic teachings on abortion and homosexuality, about half cite concerns about Catholic teachings on birth control and roughly four-in-ten name unhappiness with Catholicism’s treatment of women.”

Surprisingly to me, “Fewer than three-in-ten former Catholics, however, say the clergy sexual abuse scandal factored into their decision to leave Catholicism.”

“Many people who left a religion to become unaffiliated say they did so in part because they think of religious people as hypocritical or judgmental, because religious organizations focus too much on rules or because religious leaders are too focused on power and money. Far fewer say they became unaffiliated because they believe that modern science proves that religion is just superstition.”

christian church
A rural church threatened by rural and small town de-population along with declining church affiliation, especially among young people.

Interpreting the data…

The Pew studies consistently allude to unaffiliated people leaving Protestant churches for the same reasons they leave Catholicism.  These can relate to traditional teachings on homosexuality, abortion, birth control and the treatment of women. Preachers being overly doctrinaire, judgmental, hypocritical, focusing on money and power were all major reasons for people leaving organized Christianity. These are painstakingly thought out decisions that certainly have nothing to do with an organized destruction of Christianity by secularists.

For the present, preachers and priests are raising money from a smaller pool of parishioners. Unfortunately, this pool is older and more traditional than the general population. It is easy to see these older and more traditional members will demand churches resist change. And, as is the case so many times with churches, money talks.

Combine this with the high number of Millennials who’ve already left organized Christian churches and expect the present drop in church membership to accelerate as members of the Silent Generation die.

A major mistake is assuming people who’ve left organized Christianity are now leading immoral lives. Those who left organized religion because of the hypocrisy of church leaders and membership, disagreement with church doctrine on homosexuality, treatment of women, birth control and abortion are often living lives more consistent with Christian standards than those who remained faithful to their churches.

One factor not covered in these two Pew surveys is the impact of bringing politics into churches. Many Evangelical churches and some Catholic dioceses have aligned themselves with the Republican Party. Some go so far as calling the GOP the party of God.

So, what are some examples of hypocritical behaviors that drive people away from churches? Many of these examples are dramatically impacted by dogmatic Republican policies.

The contrast between Christ’s teachings and Republican policies…

“They devour widows’ houses and for a show make lengthy prayers. Such men will be punished most severely.” Mark 12:40. Does this remind you of people who in the name of Christ believe in destroying Social Security so rich people’s taxes can be cut?

“But when you give a banquet, invite the poor, the crippled, the lame, the blind.” Luke 14:13.  Don’t expect to find many poor, crippled, lame or blind at a Republican banquet. On election night, candidates from both parties host what they hope will be victory celebrations. You won’t see the aforementioned at a Republican celebration. You’ll need to go to a Democratic event to see these folks. The reason is simple. Democrats represent the groups Christ represented. How many Republican bills can you name that aim to help the crippled, the lame and the blind? Republicans have done everything possible to make it more difficult for disabled people to claim Social Security benefits.

“Suppose a man comes into your meeting wearing a gold ring and fine clothes, and a poor man in shabby clothes also comes in. If you show special attention to the man wearing fine clothes and say, ‘Here’s a good seat for you,’ but say to the poor man, ‘You stand there’ or ‘Sit on the floor by my feet,’ have you not discriminated among yourselves and becomes judges with evil thoughts? Listen, my dear brothers: Has not God chosen those who are poor in the eyes of the world to be rich in faith and to inherit the kingdom He promised those who love Him? But you have insulted the poor. Is it not the rich who are exploiting you? Are they not the ones who are dragging you into court?” James 2:2-6. There is no place at a Republican meeting for the poor. Republicans are experts at taking from the poor for the gain of the rich.  During  Democrat Barack Obama’s Administration, we saw the first efforts to try and equalize the treatment of the poor in our criminal justice system.

“If anyone has material possessions and sees his brother in need but has no pity on him, how can the love of God be in him? Dear children, let us not love with words or tongue but with actions and in truth.” 1 John 3:17-18. Republican policies of cutting food stamps, housing and medical care for the poor while giving the rich tax breaks are a direct repudiation of Christ’s words.

“Command those who are rich in this present world not to be arrogant nor to put their hope in wealth, which is so uncertain, but to put their hope in God, who richly provides us with everything for our enjoyment. Command them to do good, to be rich in good deeds, and to be generous and willing to share.” 1 Timothy 6:17-18.  Republican policies are all about making the rich wealthier at the expense of the poor. What better example than the Trump and Clinton charities to illustrate the differences in doing good, good deeds, generosity and willingness to share? The Trump charity has been shut down because of fraud. The Clinton charity is one of the world’s most highly ranked on the basis achieving their goals/good deeds and cost efficiency.

“For I was hungry and you gave me something to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in.” Matthew 25:35. How does this correlate with Republican policies on forcibly taking children away from parents who have come here legally seeking asylum?

“On reaching Jerusalem, Jesus entered the temple courts and began driving out those who were buying and selling there. He overturned the tables of the moneychangers and the benches of those selling doves, and would not allow anyone to carry merchandise through the temple courts.  And as he taught them, he said, “Is it not written: ‘My house will be called a house of prayer for all nations’? But you have made it ‘a den of robbers.”

“The chief priests and the teachers of the law heard this and began looking for a way to kill him, for they feared him, because the whole crowd was amazed at his teaching.” Mark 11:15-18.  I wonder what Jesus would do if he observed the wealth of the mega-rich preachers who endorse Donald Trump?

So, what is Christianity?

The Christianity practiced by Jesus Christ that embraced the poor, the downtrodden, the sick, the hungry and strangers, while condemning the greed of the rich is a complete opposite of what the Donald Trump led Republicans practice and mislabel as Christianity. Republicans have taken one of the world’s great religions, defiled it and made their form of Christianity into something unrecognizable.

Christians In Name Only (CINOs) absolutely hate Food Stamps (SNAP) and the Affordable Care Act. Trump has petitioned the Supreme Court to make the Affordable Care Act illegal. If he is successful, health insurance will become unaffordable for millions of people with pre-existing conditions. Taking food away from the poor and access to health care away from millions are some of the most un-Christian policies imaginable.

Even worse is the forced separation of children from their parents on our southern border. According to government data, 2,654 children were separated from their parents This included 103 who were under five years old.. They were placed in 121 different detention centers in 17 states. No religion in the world condones this inexcusable Trump policy.

CINOs also value symbolism over following Christ’s teachings. Wisconsin’s Republican run Assembly and Senate both found time to pass a resolution renaming the Holiday Tree in the Capitol a “Christmas Tree”. Yet, they couldn’t find the time before adjourning for the Holidays to fund the recommendations of a panel chaired by former Republican Lieutenant Governor to provide shelter, food and mental health services for homeless people living outside in a Wisconsin winter.

There are CINOs and then there are Christians

Before going further, it is time to make an important differentiation. As one person frequently reminds me, “We aren’t all like them.” And this person is absolutely right.

There are millions of people in the US who really do believe in Jesus Christ. Instead of seeing Christianity as an Old Testament vehicle of hate against gays and a license for oppression of people of color and other religions, they do their best in their day-to-day lives to treat others with kindness and generosity as Jesus would. Millions of these actual Christians in the US are trying to make the world a better place for everyone.

There are other differences between real Christians and the CINOs. The person who reminds me, “We aren’t all like them”, loathes Donald Trump. This person and the millions of other real Christians out there will never vote for Trump or any Republican that supports him. Donald Trump has made thousands of Christians into lifelong Democrats.

The same goes for Frugal Ron’s generalization of the “greedy rich”. Not all rich people are greedy. In fact, the majority of Democrats have much higher incomes than typical Republicans. However, the rich people who would rather have a tax cut than see hungry people get food, the homeless get shelter, poor children get the best education possible and the sick get medical care fit Christ’s definition of greedy. These are the rich people who vote Republican and finance Republican candidates.

Republican CINO acceptance of sexual assault

The Pew Research Center surveys found many people left Christian churches because of their former religion’s treatment of women. Trump with the “see no evil, hear no evil, think no evil and speak no evil” allegiance of his CINO backers, has taken this treatment of women to a new low.

As a parent, if I had teenage daughters again, I would do everything possible to dissuade my girls from having friendships with sons of Trump supporters. And, I wouldn’t care how many church and Sunday school sessions their sons were made to sit through. The lesson Trump supporters are teaching their sons is that sexual assault is just fine, as long as you lie about it afterwards.

I’ve listened to every possible excuse for Trump’s sexual assault of 25 young women and his bragging about it. It is sad and sickening how people who pretend to be Christians minimize or dismiss the women who came forward.

Worse, is the disgusting defense of Supreme Court Justice nominee Brett Kavanaugh at his Senate confirmation.  Christine Blasey Ford had nothing to gain and lost her privacy by reliving Kavanaugh’s attempted rape of her when she was 15. Compared to her compelling testimony, Kavanaugh brought out his ridiculous calendars that he claimed exonerated him. How many 17 year old male, hard drinking, hard partying, prep school jocks take the time to keep a diary? How many then keep those diaries for four decades? (Editor’s note: I have never heard of another teenage boy that keeps a diary.)

Far more logical is that Kavanaugh knew exactly what he tried to do to Blasey Ford when he was a teenager. He went home and started his diary with fictitious names and places and kept these diaries out of fear that Blasey Ford would one day come forward.

Even more damning is how the majority Republicans on the Judiciary Committee refused to subpoena Mark Judge to testify under oath. Judge was the other person in the room that pulled Kavanaugh off Blasey Ford during his attempted rape.  As Trump’s Senate Republican flunkies continually see things, if they don’t hear testimony, then it never happened. Today’s Republicans don’t seek out the truth. Instead, they hide from it.

Any other administration (Republican or Democrat) would have pulled Kavanaugh’s nomination. Republicans have a number of anti-abortion judges, many with much stronger credentials than Kavanaugh, whom they could have switched the nomination to. But, they didn’t.

Republicans love to point out, “What about Bill Clinton?” Bill Clinton and Donald Trump go right to the heart of the difference between Democratic and Republican attitudes towards women. Both had affairs and were accused of sexual assault, (although Clinton was only accused of one sexual assault compared to Trump’s 25).

According to Gallup poll data, Clinton left the presidency with a 66 percent approval rating in 2000. This is the highest end of term approval rating since these records were started in 1952. Clinton was a fundraising machine for Democrats. But, after the “Me too” movement and a re-examination of his actions, he is a pariah in his party. In the last election and in the current one, not one Democrat has asked Clinton to campaign or fundraise with them. He is a non-entity in the Democratic Party.

Conversely, Donald Trump, with a far worse record of disgusting and immoral behavior, is hailed by his supporters as having been sent by God to save our country and is the figurehead of the Republican Party. The differences between how the two parties treat immorality couldn’t be more stark.

While this writer would advise his own daughters to not be involved with sons of Trump supporters, the kids Frugal Ron feels most sorry for are young girls raised in Trump supporting households. After hearing and seeing on social media the ways their parents disparaged Blasey Ford and the 25 women assaulted by Trump with every derogatory name possible, the message to these young girls is clear. Rape and sexual assault by white men is something they need to accept. This is unbelievably sad.

The world has changed in its views of sexual assault. The Democratic Party has changed and I’ve changed. Unfortunately, Republicans remain stuck in a 1950’s mentality.

At a certain point, we need to look at the obvious. Trump supporters accept sexual assault. Want more proof? Watch the following video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-ZFoco_1gQ

Wrapping up…

There’s a lot going on here, and none of it is good. First, Christianity in the US is a religion in decline. That is a fact.

Republicans want to claim Christians are the target of “organized destruction” by “secularists and their allies among progressives who have marshaled all the force of mass communications, popular culture, the entertainment industry and academia”.  That is a falsehood.

According to the Pew interviews, Christianity is in decline because of the hypocrisy of their leaders and members, autocratic money and power driven preachers, marginalization of women, opposition to birth control and mistreatment of gays. That is fact.

We can also agree that there is a major schism in organized Christianity. It is not between Protestants and Catholics, those differences are minor. The real division is between those adherents of Old Testament theology of fear, death, hatred and destruction and those who believe in Jesus Christ’s teachings of unconditional love and charity. Add in the impact of Republicans bringing politics and Donald Trump into the mix and the division gets even wider.

CINOs are enraptured by Donald Trump. However, for a religion losing members because of hypocrisy, keeping Trump in office for four more years while church leaders are lavishing praise on him could make this exodus look like a stampede.

CINOs claim a level of righteousness by stacking the Supreme Court with justices they hope will outlaw abortion.  However, any such law is unenforceable for women with money and Internet availability. Far more effective than throwing women and their doctors in jail is making contraceptives (including the 100 percent effective Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives) free for all women of reproductive age as well as condoms free for all males. Add in science based sex education as part of middle and high school biology curriculums and we can eliminate most abortions.  https://www.frugalron.com/abortion-sex-and-republicans/

In this upside down world, Democrats are doing on earth what Jesus did in His time. Secularists supposedly dominate the Democratic Party. Yet, here they are, trying to bring health care to all, shelter to the homeless, food to the hungry, justice to the oppressed and taxing the rich fairly. The Republican Party, that claims to be the Party of Jesus, has fought all of these Christian efforts tooth-and-nail.

The Democrats most recent leader, President Barack Obama, has been married to the same woman for 39 years in a relationship we can all aspire to. His daily actions, his uplifting speeches and his genuine honesty and goodness have been motivating to all of us that aren’t racists. His wife, Michelle, recently completed an inspirational book, Becoming, that details their life of service to others and the joy helping others brings them.

The Republican leader, Donald Trump, is a perpetual liar that has been married three times, divorced twice (to date), had his charity shut down because of fraud, has had numerous public sexual affairs, has 16 felony indictments facing him when he leaves office and operated a scam university. He continually brings out the worst in those who surround him. Frugal Ron challenged Trump’s supporters in a Facebook post to identify one thing Trump has done to benefit others and not himself in the last 30 years. No one has responded. I’m not holding my breath.


The Case Against Impeachment

Impeaching President Donald Trump is justified. Attempting to coerce the head of the FBI to end an investigation and firing him when he refused are obstructions of justice. Trump’s bragging  that he fired the FBI head because of his refusal to end the Russian investigation are icing on the cake. While many want an immediate impeachment, Frugal Ron suggests patience.

There are four good reasons to let Trump stay in office for the time being. First, if we impeach and successfully throw Trump out of office now for  obstructing justice, guilty people will go free. We need to know what Trump is trying to hide about his Russian connections. We need to identify and prosecute supporting players. Was the Republican National Committee and Reince Priebus involved? These are questions we need answered. Punishments need to be so severe that successors will never accept help from foreign governments.

Second, besides identifying other guilty parties in the US, a vigorous investigation will uncover the Russian side of the equation. We need to know what the Russians did, why they did it and how they did it. We need to know if Trump’s associates were directly involved in the hacking. These investigations might go by the wayside if Trump is removed from office and people lose interest. While getting rid of Trump is a noble goal, we need to understand what the Russians did and make sure we prevent their interference in future elections,

Third, Trump is the perfect person to not enact the dangerous Republican agenda. Besides being the biggest liar in our political history, Trump is incredibly incompetent. He has so far proven incapable of accomplishing much of anything. Considering the Republican agenda of huge spending increases, unfathomable tax cuts  and out of control deficits while taking from the poor and middle class and giving to the rich, Trump is the perfect president to not get anything done.  A President Pence might have some hope of passing these atrocities.

For those innocents that think after removing Trump from office  we’ll suddenly start preparing to mitigate climate change  and  we’ll drop plans to defund Planned Parenthood, I have a reality check for you. Ignoring climate science and data on the relationship of more available contraception and fewer abortions are Republican agenda ideas. Trump just happens to buy into them.  Again, because of his incompetence and weak standing in polls, impeaching Trump increases the odds of Republicans enacting their agenda.

Impeach
Think of them as Trump associates getting used to confined spaces with bars.

The only downside to keeping Trump in office is that he could blunder us into a war. This is definitely a risk, yet impeaching him while he still has a high level of popularity among Republicans presents other problems.

Let Trump twist in the wind, then impeach him

Fourth, throwing Trump out of office while he still has approval ratings in the upper 30’s is a mistake. Let his lies, arrogance  and actions bury him. Then impeach him.

There are some parallels in history. Voters knew about the Watergate break-in and that President Richard Nixon couldn’t be trusted, but re-elected him in a landslide in 1972. The slow, methodical investigation into the Watergate burglary, cover-up and Nixon’s obstruction of justice eventually wore his popularity down to almost nothing. No one was sad to see him go and there was no divisiveness about his fate.

The Republican dilemma, post impeachment

What happens after Trump’s impeachment must make forward thinking Republicans (granted, not many of these exist), nervous for their party’s future. Gerald Ford’s  (Nixon’s Vice President),  first act after assuming the Presidency was to pardon Nixon for all of his crimes. Ford instantly became a lame-duck president. He passed no meaningful legislation during his term in office and lost the next election to Jimmy Carter. If Carter had been half as successful a president as he was as an ex-president, Republicans would probably have been out of office for at least 12 years.

If Trump is impeached after a long investigation and his popularity is at Nixon levels, Republicans are in a no-win quandary. A criminal trial could drag on for years with Trump possibly joining his associates in jail. Pardon him, and the damage is immediate and perhaps equally long lasting.

 

 

 

Abortion Industry and Republicans

The abortion “industry” and Planned Parenthood have to rank near the top of nonsensical issues today’s Republicans rail on. Merriam-Webster’s online dictionary defines industry “as a distinct group of productive or profit-making enterprises”. This is the antonym of anyone offering abortion services.

Following the Donald Trump fiasco about punishing women that get abortions, we are told that the real murderers are the abortion industry doctors that entice young women to kill their unborn babies for their doctor’s profit. While the reality is, abortion doctors are providing a low-cost service for women with few alternatives.

Yet, Republicans have to invent an “industry” to personify greed rather than admit that the real driving force for women getting abortions is that it is a last resort to end a pregnancy they don’t want. We might also add these women are in a better place to make their decisions than a large, intrusive liberal government is to make it for them.

And, about the doctors enticing women to kill their unborn babies for their own profit, according to salarygenius.com, the average yearly salary for an “Abortion Doctor” in Milwaukee, Wisconsin is $86,433. The average yearly salary for an “Ob Doctor” in Milwaukee, Wisconsin is $108,942.  An abortion doctor has the same degree and qualifications as an obstetrician, yet makes $22,500 less per year. These are the most poorly paid money grubbers in existence.

Aborted plans

The infamous Planned Parenthood videos Republicans love to hate capture Dr. Amna Dermish  affirming a $50-60 fetal specimen reimbursement charge to research laboratories.  Yet, Nasco, a highly respected Wisconsin company that has sold laboratory specimens to schools for decades, charges $89 for a (euthanized) 16-23 inch long skinned cat.

Why is this important?  Because David Daleiden, the organizer of the videotaping effort to prove Planned Parenthood broke the law, needed to prove the organization sold fetal tissue for a profit. A Texas grand jury disagreed and refused to charge Planned Parenthood.

Daleiden and an associate, posing as representatives of a fake tissue procurement company, made a big mistake using a fake ID to gain access to Planned Parenthood in Houston, Texas. In Texas, knowingly using a fake government document if  the intent is to defraud or harm another is a second degree felony punishable by up to 20 years in prison. Instead of charging Planned Parenthood, the grand jury charged Daleiden and his associate.

The point of all this is simply that here is another example of the fantasy world Republicans need to belong to if they are going to justify their agenda. Who cares if the facts show there is no such thing as an abortion industry? Even though Planned Parenthood was cleared of all charges and three Congressional investigations costing $hundreds of thousands found no evidence of the sale of fetal tissue for a profit, Congress and a number of Republican controlled states voted to cut off their funding.

Planned Parenthood's fancy digs.
Planned Parenthood’s fancy digs.

The real anti-abortion agenda

Republicans who say they want to end abortions and at the same time slash Planned Parenthood funding are illogical or have a hidden agenda. The non-profit Planned Parenthood provides low or no cost contraceptives for the women at highest risk of unwanted pregnancies. Published research over and over reaffirms that making contraceptives more available is the most effective way of reducing unwanted pregnancies and abortions.

If lowering abortion numbers is not the real driver of the anti-abortion Republicans, then what is?  Maybe their real goal is punishing women having sex for reasons other than procreation? Deprive them of legal and safe abortions and force them to have the child as a punishment?

Cutting off Planned Parenthood’s distribution of contraceptives fits in this pattern. The only people needing contraceptives are those not intending to produce children. In a misguided way, depriving them of contraceptives might stop them from having sex. Perhaps, there is more to the Republican abortion industry  than meets the eye.